Futures Market Weekly (9.26-9.30)

Methanol: The center of gravity rises

As of the close of trading on September 30, the inter-period spread between methanol 2301 and 2305 contracts was 188 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the near-month contract was strong

In terms of spot, the methanol market has changed from a premium to a rising state, and the basis is at a relatively high level

On the supply side, as of the end of September, the operating rate of methanol production plants was 71.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventories in coastal areas continued to decline, sharply reducing to 732,300 tons, down 117,700 tons month-on-month, a decline of 13.

In the downstream, most of them maintain just need procurement, and the demand side of the peak season is not significantly

In the future, the methanol market shows a supply and demand increase trend, with the inventory lower, the pressure of supply and demand eases, and the futures price successfully breaks through the previous high.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Soda ash: unilateral rise

In the week before the holiday, the soda ash futures market continued to rise unilaterally strongly

In terms of spot, the soda ash market is dominated by

On the supply side, the operating rate of the soda ash industry has rebounded seasonally for four consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of the soda ash industry in the last week of September was 82.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash production enterprises fell back

On the demand side, downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass manufacturers are not enthusiastic about the procurement of raw material soda ash, and they insist on using and mining as they go, glass manufacturers do not reduce their mentality of heavy alkali prices, and the center of gravity of the new single transaction price of heavy alkali is moved

From the perspective of the future market, the maintenance plan of soda ash manufacturers was implemented, and the market price of soda ash was adjusted moderately

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

PTA: Tidying up

In the week before the holiday, the refined terephthalic acid (PTA) futures market was mainly

In terms of spot, as of October 9, the spot price of PTA was 6505 yuan, an increase of 5.

On the supply side, with OPEC+ reaching a new production reduction agreement, the cost side has been significantly boosted, and spot prices may remain strong, and it is expected that the PTA's near-strong and far-weak pattern will continue

On the demand side, the inventory of polyester enterprises still maintains a high level, cash flow is still facing greater pressure, and some companies have just need to replenish their needs

In the future, it is expected that the price trend of PTA is mainly driven by the cost side, and the price may open higher to the upside, and the future market needs to focus on the sustainability of
crude oil growth.

(Founder mid-Cheng Xuefei)

Natural glue: from strong to weak

In the week before the holiday, the natural rubber futures market continued to rise unilaterally, and then encountered resistance and weak correction
.
As of the close of trading on September 30, Hujiao RU2301 closed down 150 yuan to 13,000 yuan; No.
20 glue NR2212 closed down 125 yuan to 9990 yuan
.

On the supply side, Hainan glue production has grown steadily, and the supply of raw materials in the future market will continue to grow; The output of raw materials in Yunnan production areas has increased, and the supply of domestic rubber has gradually increased
.
The overall output of Southeast Asian production areas will increase, and the release of raw materials will increase
.

In terms of inventory, on September 30, the inventory of Shanghai rubber increased by 3,701 tons to 306,300 tons; No.
20 rubber stocks were reduced by 3,226 tons to 56,300 tons
.
October is in the seasonal sharp increase stage, it is expected that the future arrival volume tends to increase, and the spot inventory of Tianjiao in Qingdao area will continue to increase
.

Downstream, as of September 29, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 58.
09%, down 1.
78% from September 22; The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 62.
64%, down 0.
32%
from September 22.

From the perspective of the future market, the domestic supply in Yunnan is loose, and the supply shortage in Hainan is alleviated; The downstream tire boom is weak, the automobile consumption is weak, but it is stabilized by the policy boost, the short-term rebound of natural rubber does not change the medium-term weakness, and the future market may return to the low level of shock finishing
.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

Polyolefins: first inhibited and then raised

In the week leading up to the holiday, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures markets were first depressed and then rose
.
As of September 30, the LLDPE2301 contract closed at 8074 yuan, a weekly decline of 0.
16%; The PP2301 contract closed at 7972 yuan, up 0.
26%
weekly.

In terms of spot, the polyolefin spot market rose sharply on the first day after the holiday, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 8400~9000 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of September 29, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 80.
35%, an increase of 1.
26 percentage points on a weekly basis
.
As of October 6, the PP operating rate was 84.
51%, down 0.
23% percentage points from
before the holiday.

In terms of inventory, as of October 8, the inventory level of major producers was 820,000 tons, compared with 245,000 tons
before the holiday.
As of October 7, PE social inventory was 163,560 tons, up 0.
015 million tons from before the holiday; PP social inventory was 32,980 tons, down 0.
026 million tons
from before the holiday.

On the demand side, as of September 30, the operating rate of agricultural film was 49%, an increase of 2 percentage points on a weekly basis; The pipe operating rate was 45%, an increase of 3 percentage points on a weekly basis; The operating rate of plastic knitting was 49%, an increase of 1 percentage point on a weekly basis
.

In the future, the recent device changes have decreased, the supply of low level slightly increased, the overall change is not large, the current is in the peak season of the year, some industries marginal better, but the strength is not large
.
Oil prices rose sharply during the National Day holiday, cost support is strong, it is expected that polyolefins will be high probability to open stronger, pay attention to oil price fluctuations
.

(Founder mid-term Feng Xiaofen)