Fundamentals supply and demand are weak Short-term aluminum prices will continue to run weakly

Macro data is weak, and US macro data is weak overall
.
The latest release of final real GDP for the first quarter rose 3.
1% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below expectations of 3.
2%, and Fitch expects US GDP growth of 2.
4% in 2019 and 1.
8%
in 2020.
In addition, the employment data performed poorly, with data released by the US Department of Labor showing that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 75,000 in May, the lowest level in the last three months, and wage growth cooled
.
Terminal demand was also weak, with the ISM manufacturing index falling short expectations in May and hitting its lowest level since October 2016, reflecting a weak
economy.

Domestically, macro data continues to weaken, and policy expectations remain.

From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 2.
37902 billion yuan, down 2.
3% year-on-year, reflecting the weakening
of domestic industrial operation.
From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4,607.
5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.
2%, the growth rate was 0.
7 percentage points lower than that from January to April, and the real estate market had no major highlights
.
Due to the relatively weak economic data in China, the market has strong expectations for policy support
.
Among them, in June, the official allowed special bonds to be stimulated by the news of eligible capital for major projects, which triggered the market's expectations for large-scale infrastructure to heat up, and the market expects the scale of infrastructure to reach trillions
.

China's bauxite imports in May were 9.
7091 million tons, an increase of 33.
18% year-on-year, and domestic imports of bauxite from January to May totaled 45.
2867 million tons, an increase of 35.
5%
year-on-year.
In the short term, as the bauxite import window continues to open, the tightening of domestic bauxite supply will be eased
.

At present, the production reduction caused by environmental protection in Shanxi has basically recovered except for Jiaokou Xinfa, and it is expected that the full resumption of production of Jiaokou Xinfa will not wait until the fourth quarter
.
Since the news of Hydro's resumption of production, domestic alumina began to enter a downward channel, the current Shanxi primary alumina quotation of 2834 yuan / ton, Guiyang primary alumina quotation of 2845 yuan / ton, Henan first-class alumina quotation of 2849 yuan / ton, the price of the three places from the peak fell by about
200-340 yuan / ton.
At present, the Australian alumina FOB price is 323 US dollars / ton, and the continuous decline in foreign alumina prices has led to the opening of the import profit window
.
Alumina imports are expected to arrive at about 60,000-90,000 tons in June, and alumina prices are expected to come under further pressure
as alumina imports continue to increase.
The destocking range narrowed Electrolytic aluminum inventories showed a downward trend, but the destocking range continued to narrow
.

As of June 27, according to statistics, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts) was 208,000 tons in Shanghai, 353,000 tons in Wuxi, 60,000 tons in Hangzhou, 101,000 tons in Gongyi, 246,000 tons in the South China Sea, 54,000 tons in Tianjin, 07,000 tons in Linyi, 22,000 tons in Chongqing, and the total inventory of aluminum ingots in the place of consumption was 1.
051 million tons, down 30,000 tons
from last Thursday 。 To sum up, there is no big bright spot in the macro surface, superimposed on the weak supply and demand of fundamentals, short-term aluminum prices will continue to run weakly, and the core fluctuation range is 13500-14000 yuan / ton
.
In the medium and long term, aluminum prices around 13,500 yuan / ton will be strongly supported
.