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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
in a narrow range.
Aluminum supply is stable upward, downstream starts are insufficient, long-term excess pressure is large, and aluminum ingot social stocks have accumulated slightly on Monday
.
At present, the stock of 670,000 tons is the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the price is elastic under the low inventory state, but the continuous rebound still lacks a strong driver
.
Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate and wait for the guidance of the Fed's interest rate meeting this Thursday, and the upper resistance is still at 18200 yuan
.
On the macro front, this week the market entered the interest rate hike week, the market generally predicted that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points, with a low probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points, and the reduction in demand caused by interest rate hikes is still the main consideration
affecting the price of industrial products.
On the supply side, affected by the weakening of aluminum prices and other factors, the resumption of production in Yunnan and Guangxi has slowed down slightly, and the new production capacity in Gansu has continued to be released.
It is expected that with the subsequent resumption of production and the commissioning of new production capacity, the supply of electrolytic aluminum will remain high
.
In terms of demand, due to the epidemic, consumption off-season and other factors, the overall order performance of downstream processing enterprises is not good
.
In terms of imports and exports, the total domestic primary aluminum imports in June 2022 were 28,500 tons, down 23.
6% month-on-month and 82% year-on-year, and the total primary aluminum exports in June reached 6,623 tons, down 89.
8% month-on-month and up 8,746.
9%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, the latest aluminum ingot social stock showed a slight accumulation of 3,000 tons, and the total amount increased to 671,000 tons, of which Shanghai, Wuxi and Foshan Nanhai all showed different degrees of accumulation
.
In terms of price, although the marginal cost supports the aluminum price below, the fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand are difficult to promote the continuous rebound of the plate, and it is recommended to treat it as neutral in the short term
.
