Fundamentals have not changed much, and aluminum prices may continue to consolidate around Wanjiu

On the supply side, the recent resumption of production in Sichuan and Guangxi has continued to advance, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has steadily increased
.
In terms of demand, the recent off-season atmosphere of consumption has become stronger, the downstream demand for raw alloys, aluminum profiles and aluminum foil has weakened, and corporate orders have decreased significantly, considering the Spring Festival
.
In terms of inventory, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has now fallen to about 500,000 tons, and fewer arrivals in some areas
.

At present, domestic operating capacity and output are still climbing, demand has declined significantly with the off-season, overseas orders are not good, domestic is subject to the impact of control, transportation is slow, operation is not good, and inventory continues to fall to a new low; In the past two months, the aluminum processing PMI has been below the boom and bust line, and the drag effect of the profile plate is the most obvious
.

The recent macro orientation is good, the fundamentals are bearish, and the aluminum price may continue to consolidate
around Wanjiu.
If the transportation problem improves significantly in the future, there is a possibility of catching up with the previous orders downstream, but the start of winter construction will also be greatly hindered, and it is difficult for demand to improve greatly, and be wary of the expectation
of inventory turning.

On the whole, in the short term, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remains low, and the overall spot market is tight, which still has some support for the fundamentals of domestic aluminum prices, and the current contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent for the time being, and it is recommended to treat
it with the idea of high selling and low absorption.