Fundamentals are still supported, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuates and rises

Market focus: (1) Fed Kaplan: will work to stabilize inflation and inflation expectations at 2%; The Fed should discuss tapering bond purchases
as soon as possible.
(2) On May 17, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in China's main market decreased by 0.
95 million tons
from last Thursday.
(3) In the first quarter, Inner Mongolia exported 10,000
tons of aluminum to ASEAN countries.
(4) Primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in April increased by 12.
4% year-on-year to 3.
35 million tons, and primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production from January to April increased by 9.
6% year-on-year to 13.
02 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On May 17, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 19680-19720 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19700 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan
per day.
The circulation source is loose, the holders ship at a good price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is better, and the middlemen receive goods at low prices, and the overall transaction is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 178314 tons on Monday, an increase of 381 tons per day; On May 14, LME stocks were 1762525 tonnes, down 3,500 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract held 112015 lots, a daily increase of 86 lots, a short position of 121588 lots, a daily decrease of 623 lots, a net short position of 9573 lots, a daily decrease of 1994 lots, a long increase, a short and net short decrease
.

Market research: The US inflation data for April released last week hit the highest since the financial crisis, and the surge in inflation combined with the recent sustained rise in commodities has caused market concerns and increased the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates
.
On the supply side, the primary aluminum import window has opened again, the high profits of the industry have promoted the growth of electrolytic aluminum supply, the resumption of new production has accelerated, and the overall supply has increased
.
In terms of demand, the market is still in the peak consumption season, the recent rapid price rise has inhibited downstream consumption, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still in a state of decomposition, in addition, the global economy has recovered one after another, global aluminum demand has rebounded simultaneously, especially in ASEAN countries demand is stronger, fundamentals are still supported
.
Technically, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2106 is in the upper shadow Yang line, and it is expected that the market ladder will rise, and the medium-term bullish idea will remain unchanged
.