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During the National Day holiday, the market shocked, the United States, Canada and Mexico reached an exclusive trade agreement, Sino-US relations deteriorated again, European economic hidden dangers are heavier, the United States non-farm payrolls data is poor and other factors hit metal demand, the next week London copper first rose and then fell, the weekly line fell nearly 1.
2%, the latest closing price at 6187 yuan / ton, down 42 US dollars on Friday, down 0.
67%, the volume of 11760 lots decreased by 3583 lots, and the position 295285 increased by 3696 lots
.
The market is closed during the domestic National Day holiday, and there is no Shanghai copper night market data
.
On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 134,000 in September, the growth rate hit a one-year low, expected 185,000, the US unemployment rate in September was 3.
7%, a new low since December 1969, the dollar showed a rebound to suppress the commodity market, last week the London Metal Exchange March copper ended down 1.
09% at $6186.
5 / ton
。 Domestically, weaker macro data dragged down commodity market sentiment, the official manufacturing PMI in September was 50.
8, lower than the expected 51.
2, Caixin PMI data was 50, lower than the expected 50.
5, and showed a continuous decline for 4 months, reflecting the weaker operation of middle and lower enterprises, but the official policy support is obvious, China's central bank from October 15 to reduce the RRR by 1 percentage point to replace about 450 billion yuan of MLF, and release 750 billion yuan of incremental funds, Finance Minister Liu Kun said, in the study of larger tax cuts, Escort China's economy with a more active fiscal policy
.
In general, the macro surface shows a long-short intertwined pattern
.
In terms of industries, during the domestic National Day holiday, US Treasury bonds rose sharply, global stock markets and commodities performed poorly, copper prices rose first and then declined, closing lower
.
During the period, inventories decreased by 15,600 tons to 186,800 tons, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts increased by 575 tons to 99,425 tons, accounting for 53.
2%
of the cancellations.
SHFE stocks rose 966t to 111995 t in the week before the holiday, compared to 103151 t a year earlier
.
In terms of spot, London copper Cash/3m changed from premium to discount of 6 US dollars / ton, and the spot premium in Shanghai on the last trading day before the holiday was 5 yuan / ton
.
Looking ahead, due to the hawkish interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar, higher oil prices, monetary policy in other countries is facing tightening pressure, which is not conducive to external demand growth
.
However, against the backdrop of the ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States, domestic monetary and fiscal policies are likely to continue to ease, which will be positive for asset prices
.
At the industrial level, the widening of the refined waste price spread after the rise in copper prices will stimulate the replacement of scrap copper, and the recovery of individual smelters from maintenance, domestic refined copper supply and demand are expected to return to a relative balance
.
We believe the overall fundamentals are neutral and we expect price volatility to dominate
.
Action advice: buy front-month contracts
after a wait-and-see or pullback.
