Fundamentals are expected to repair Shanghai aluminum recommends wait-and-see

On the macro front, abroad, due to the strong expectations of Taper announcements this year, the market has begun to focus on the possibility of
22-year interest rate hikes.
Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission and the national coal supply and demand situation have improved significantly, and the coal storage of power plants is expected to exceed 110 million tons within 3 days, and the number of available days will reach 20 days
.

Fundamentally, the supply constraints have been limited to alleviate, but the demand side has been affected by the deep reduction in aluminum prices and the improvement of power restrictions, and the overall operating rate has recently rebounded
.
On Monday, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social library slightly accumulated 21,000 tons compared with last Thursday, Wuxi's local arrival increased compared with the previous period to contribute to the main increase, and LME aluminum ingots have been destocked to a relatively low level in the past five years
.
In terms of costs, the decline in coal prices has weakened the upfront cost support of aluminum prices, but the current aluminum plant is still high
in the context of the increase in grid electricity prices in some areas and the announcement of the cancellation of preferential electricity prices.
From the performance of the plate, the downward drive of thermal coal prices to Shanghai aluminum is weakening
.

On the whole, Shanghai aluminum is still constrained by coal prices, but there are signs of bottoming, there is still the possibility of further production restrictions in the fourth quarter, and the current consumption has improved, it is expected that as coal prices bottom out, Shanghai aluminum will rebound to a certain extent
.
This week's operating range may be between
19000-21000.