Fu Xiangsheng talks about next year's industry economy: facing the "three major challenges" and grasping the "four major opportunities"

Editor's note: Compared with previous years, the situation at home and abroad this year is more complicated
.
One is the continuous mutation and spread of the epidemic, from Shanghai, Jilin, Tianjin, Beijing in the first half of the year, to Zhengzhou, Guangzhou and many cities in the second half of the year, the impact of the epidemic this year is even more severe than in 2020; The other is the sudden Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused by the regional turmoil of the big power game, which was thought to be a short-term conflict, but 10 months have not seen the dawn of a ceasefire, and I thought it was a local regional conflict, which could affect the national strength of the entire NATO such as the United States and Europe and the attention of major powers; In addition, the intensification of inflation in the United States and Europe, the shift in monetary policy and the tightening of fiscal policy will have an impact
on the economy, especially in emerging economies.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe against Russia have led to an energy crisis and a short supply of natural gas in Europe, which has further aggravated the downward trend of the global economy, and this year's global economy can be described as "worse"!

In this context, on December 14, the annual meeting of the Executive Committee of the Foreign Investment Committee of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation was held by video, attended by members of the Executive Committee, members of the Advisory Committee and senior executives of major multinational energy and chemical companies in China
.
At the meeting, Fu Xiangsheng, vice chairman of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, expounded on the above-mentioned issues in his report, which was published by a special editor, hoping to help and enlighten
the industry and domestic enterprises in thinking about next year's work.

1.
This year's Chinese petrochemical industry has mixed results

Judging from the economic data in the first three quarters of this year, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry this year shows "one joy and three worries":

"Yixi" is China's petrochemical industry will continue to be a good year this year
.
Because the economic indicators in the first nine months of this year exceeded the expectations at the beginning of the year, the petrochemical industry achieved operating income of 12.
25 trillion yuan in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 18.
5% year-on-year; The total profit was 979.
43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.
6%; The total import and export volume was 787.
04 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 27.
4%.

Because last year's three major operating indicators (operating income of 14.
45 trillion yuan, total profit of 1.
16 trillion yuan, total import and export volume of 860 billion US dollars) all created new records in the history of the petrochemical industry, at the beginning of the year, when we predicted this year's business tasks and key targets, we all believed that it is very difficult to grow significantly on such a high base last year, as long as it does not decline, it is to maintain the historical record and achieve stable growth
。 At present, the data of the first three quarters (operating growth of 18.
5%, profit growth of 7.
6%, import and export growth of 27.
4%) has greatly exceeded the expectations at the beginning of the year, which is a good
growth rate that we did not expect at the beginning of the year.

Another comparison is clearer: the economic operation of the petrochemical industry in the first 9 months of this year has been better than in the whole of 2019! Operating income of 12.
3 trillion yuan, the same as the whole year of 2019; The profit was 979.
43 billion yuan, which was 46.
5% higher than the 668.
37 billion yuan in 2019; Imports and exports amounted to US$787.
04 billion, up from US$722.
2 billion
in 2019.
Let's talk about the "three worries":

The first major concern is the refining sector
.
In terms of sectors, the upstream of the petrochemical industry is better than the downstream, and the most worrying is the refining sector
.
In the first nine months of this year, the operating income of the oil and gas sector increased by 38.
5% year-on-year and the profit increased by 1.
12 times year-on-year; the operating income of the chemical sector increased by 14.
7% year-on-year and the profit increased by 0.
3% year-on-year; The refining sector's operating income increased by 21.
7% year-on-year, while profit fell by 65.
6%
year-on-year.
The main factor for the differentiation of the operating indicators of the three major sectors is the price of crude oil, the average price of Brent crude oil in the first 9 months of this year reached 105.
3 US dollars / barrel, up 55.
5% year-on-year, the high running crude oil price is naturally good for the oil and gas sector, especially the performance of the oil extraction sector is better (operating income increased by 52%, profit increased by 1.
54 times), but for the downstream refining and chemical sector, due to the high price of raw materials, the impact on profits is serious, especially the sharp decline in refining profits by nearly 2/3 year-on-year
。

The second is that the sustainability of performance is worrying, which is mainly reflected in the decline
in profit levels.
After entering the second half of the year, the growth rate of industry operating income did not change much: in the first half of the year, the operating income of the whole industry increased by 20.
9% year-on-year, the growth rate in January ~ July was 20.
0%, the growth rate was 19.
0% in January ~ August, the growth rate was 18.
5% in January ~ September, and the growth rate in January ~ October was 17.
1%, which did not change much; However, the growth rate of industry profits has fallen sharply: in the first half of the year, the profits of the whole industry increased by 24.
0% year-on-year, the growth rate in January ~ July was 16.
5%, the growth rate in January ~ August was 10.
9%, the growth rate in January ~ September was 7.
6%, and the growth rate of profits in January ~ October became 3.
2%, and the growth rate of profits in the four months of July ~ October fell by as high as 20.
8%; In particular, the chemical sector increased by 14.
1% in the first half of the year, increased by 0.
3% year-on-year in the first nine months, and then fell to a year-on-year decline of 4.
4% in the first 10 months, turning from positive to negative
for the first time this year.
Profitability for the full year is our biggest concern
.

Of course, from the overall operation of the industry in the first 10 months: this year will still be a good year! Specifically: the industry's operating income in the first 10 months was 13.
63 trillion yuan, a difference of less than 1 trillion yuan from last year's historical record of 14.
45 trillion yuan, and this year's operating income above 15 trillion yuan has reached a new high! The total profit has reached 1.
07 trillion yuan in the first 10 months, less than 100 billion yuan from last year's historical record of 1.
16 trillion yuan, and the annual profit is close to last year's level is promising! The total import and export volume in the first 10 months was 869.
46 billion US dollars, which was nearly 10 billion US dollars higher than last year's historical record of 860 billion US dollars, and this year's total import and export volume has reached a record high! So, this year will continue to be a good year
.

Under the circumstances of the global economic downturn, the world's petrochemical industry is facing severe challenges, and Europe's difficulties are more difficult, China's petrochemical industry can achieve such business performance this year, which once again reflects the role of China as a "stabilizer" and growth "locomotive" for the sustainable operation of the world's petrochemical industry! Although there are many different views on China's epidemic prevention measures this year, without the support and support of China's petrochemical market and the stability of China's petrochemical industry chain and supply chain, the global petrochemical industry may be even more bleak this year
.

The third is that chemical companies are more worried
.
Because of the special economic background this year, especially the high prices of energy products such as crude oil and natural gas, the energy and chemical companies around us have also shown performance differentiation: the profits of chemical-based companies have deteriorated, while the earnings of energy-oriented companies have increased
significantly.
Let's take a look at chemical-based companies: Sinopec's operating income in 2021 was 2.
74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.
2%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 71.
2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 1 times; In the first three quarters of this year, the operating income was 2.
45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.
6%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 56.
66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.
6%.

Hengli's operating income in 2021 was 197.
97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.
9%; the profit attributable to the parent company was 15.
53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.
4%; In the first three quarters of this year, the operating income was 170.
36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.
5%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 6.
087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.
1%.

Wanhua Chemical's operating income in 2021 was 145.
54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.
2%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 24.
65 billion yuan, an increase of 1.
45 times year-on-year; the operating income in the first three quarters of this year was 130.
42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.
5%; The profit was 13.
61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.
36%.

BASF's 2021 revenue was €78.
6 billion, up 33 percent year-on-year.
EBIT of €7.
8 billion, up 1 times year-on-year; Operating income in the third quarter of this year was 21.
9 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 12%; EBIT was EUR 1.
3 billion, down 28.
5 percent
y/y.
Evonik's 2021 operating income was €15 billion, up 23% year-on-year.
EBIT of EUR 2.
38 billion, up 25% year-on-year; Operating income in the third quarter of this year was 4.
88 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 26%; EBIT was €615 million, down 5 percent
year-on-year.
Covestro's 2021 revenue was €15.
9 billion, up 48.
5 percent year-on-year; EBIT of €3.
1 billion, up 1 times year-on-year; Operating income in the third quarter of this year was 4.
6 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 7.
3%; EBIT was €302 million, down 65 percent
year-on-year.
Dow's operating revenue in 2021 was $55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.
6%; The profit attributable to the parent company was US$6.
3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.
15 times; operating income in the third quarter of this year was US$14.
1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; EBIT decreased by 58.
6%
year-on-year to US$1.
2 billion.
DuPont's operating income in 2021 was $16.
7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%; EBIT of US$4.
2 billion, up 21% year-over-year; Operating income in the third quarter of this year was US$3.
32 billion, down 22.
34% year-on-year; EBIT was $856 million, up 5%
year-over-year.

Let's look at energy-based companies: PetroChina's operating income in 2021 was 2.
6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.
2%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 92.
17 billion yuan, an increase of 3.
85 times year-on-year; the operating income in the first three quarters of this year was 2.
46 trillion yuan, the profit attributable to the parent company was 120.
27 billion yuan, and the net cash flow increased by 38.
3%
year-on-year.
CNOOC's operating income in 2021 was 222.
1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.
1%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 70.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.
82 times; the operating income in the first three quarters of this year was 311.
1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79%; The profit attributable to the parent company was 108.
77 billion yuan, an increase of 1.
06 times
over the same period last year.
ExxonMobil's earnings increased 2.
9 times, Chevron 1.
9 times, Total increased 2.
1 times, Shell increased 2.
3 times, BP increased 2.
5 times and Saudi Aramco increased 39.
5%.

It can be seen that affected by high oil prices this year, domestic enterprises and multinational companies have shown a basically consistent trend: the profits of chemical-based companies have declined, and the profits of energy-based companies have increased
significantly.

2.
The "three major challenges" facing the economy today and next year

At present, the world's unprecedented major changes in a century are accelerating evolution, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is developing in depth, the international balance of power is being profoundly adjusted, especially the continuation of the epidemic, coupled with the sudden Russian-Ukrainian conflict this year, it has accelerated the reconstruction of the world petrochemical industry, and the global economy and petrochemical market are facing new challenges
.

First, the global economic downturn is becoming increasingly severe
.
Affected by multiple factors such as inflation in developed economies, big country games and regional conflicts, and the uncertainty of the epidemic, this year's global economic growth rate is about half of last year's 6.
1%, next year's global economy is more confusing, from the recent OECD, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and international institutions, economic departments and economic advisers and other latest forecasts for the world economy, the forecast for next year is more pessimistic, the global economy will not fall into recession due to the drive of emerging economies.
However, the probability of some developed countries falling into recession exists, and the risk of individual emerging economies falling into crisis due to the sharp appreciation of the dollar is also increasing, which we cannot avoid next year
.
IMF's forecast for next year: global economic growth of 2.
7%, advanced economies growth of only 1.
1%, the United States growth of 1%, Japan growth of 1.
6%, the United Kingdom 1.
2%, Canada 1.
5%; Emerging market and developing countries will grow 3.
7 percent next year, China 4.
4 percent, India 6.
1 percent, ASEAN-5 4.
9 percent, Iran 2 percent, and Saudi Arabia 3.
7 percent
.

The IMF predicts that Russia's economic growth will decline by 3.
4% this year and 2.
3% next year, while the OECD predicts that Russia's GDP will fall by 5.
5% this year and 4.
5% next year, losing about 10% of its total economic output in two years; Ukraine is even worse, this year's GDP will fall sharply by 35%, in 2021 Ukraine's total GDP is only 200 billion US dollars, per capita only 4800 US dollars, this year can be imagined
.

The spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a serious impact on the world economy, and the EU has been even more
affected.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU has joined hands with the United States to sanction Russia, making the United States the biggest beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, resulting in the EU becoming the biggest victim
of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to Europe's own statistics, Europe's losses due to the energy crisis are as high as 500 billion euros, of which Germany alone is as high as more than 100 billion euros; The IMF has repeatedly lowered its economic forecasts for the eurozone, most recently forecasting growth of just 0.
5 percent
next year.
The latest report of the European Commission: The economies of most countries in the euro area fell into recession in the fourth quarter of this year, and predicted that the euro area economy will grow by only 0.
3%
next year.
Among them, Germany, the former "locomotive" of the EU economy, is the worst, with economic growth of 1.
4% this year and 0.
6% next year, which will be the three years when Germany has suffered the most economic losses since the oil crisis in the 70s of the 20th century
.
It can be seen that the general environment of the world economy next year will be more severe and complex, especially in developed economies and the euro area, due to the impact of superimposed factors such as the energy crisis and rising inflation, the probability of falling into recession next year is increasing
.

Second, it will take time
to heal the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the industrial chain and supply chain.
The energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in late February this year and the EU natural gas supply cutoff not only have a direct impact on the euro area economy, but also the petrochemical industry chain supply chain is also facing the risk of
supply interruption 。 Natural gas is very important to the European chemical industry, about 33% of the steam, electricity and other energy required in the production process rely on natural gas, 40% of natural gas is used as a raw material for the production of chemicals, especially synthetic ammonia, methanol, etc.
almost all rely on natural gas as raw materials, the reduction of natural gas supply will directly affect the stable production
of fertilizers and other industries.
The price of gas and electricity in the European Union has risen 10 times at its peak compared to before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and many industrial sectors in Europe are reducing production due to high energy prices, and Europe's electrolytic aluminum production has fallen by 50%.

Germany's Handelsblatt reported in October that in order to save natural gas and electricity, energy-intensive industries reduced steel production by about 5%, chemical industry by 8%, and fertilizer industry even closed 70% of Germany's production capacity
.
BASF's familiar European plants spent €2.
2 billion more on high-priced natural gas in the first nine months of this year, and Covestro also forecasts total energy costs of €2.
2 billion this year, up significantly from €600 million in 2020 and €1 billion
in 2021.
The CEO of Ineos Olefins & Polymers expressed concern about the lack of superior feedstocks, the CEO of Dow Chemical Company said that its plants in Europe have reduced its use of natural gas, and several European chemical companies have said that they have reduced production in Europe as much as possible
.
Europe is an important pole of the global chemical industry, especially the proportion and competitiveness of new chemical materials and fine chemicals, the production instability and scale reduction caused by the shortage of natural gas in the European chemical industry will inevitably have a significant impact
on the stability and sustainability of the global petrochemical industry chain and supply chain.
More worryingly, there is no dawn of improvement next year
.

Third, the downward pressure on the prices of major petrochemical products has increased
amid fluctuations.
The price of crude oil is not only the price of a commodity, but also a financial attribute and even a "barometer"
of the economy.
Of course, crude oil prices are most closely related to the petrochemical industry, and the rise and fall of crude oil prices obviously affects the efficiency
of the petrochemical industry.
In 2019, the average price of Brent crude oil was 64.
26 US dollars / barrel, down 9.
9% year-on-year; In that year, the operating income of China's petrochemical industry increased by 1.
3% year-on-year, and the total profit decreased by 14.
9%
year-on-year.
In 2020, the average price of Brent crude oil was 41.
74 US dollars / barrel, down 35.
05% year-on-year; In that year, the operating income of China's petrochemical industry fell by 8.
7% year-on-year, and the total profit fell by 13.
5%
year-on-year.
In 2021, the average price of Brent crude oil was 70.
72 US dollars / barrel, up 69.
4% year-on-year; In that year, the operating income of China's petrochemical industry increased by 30% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by 126.
8%
year-on-year.
This year's crude oil price is first up and then down, affected by the sudden Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Brent crude oil price in early March briefly exceeded 139 US dollars / barrel, and then fluctuated at a high of 110 US dollars / barrel for several months, fell below 100 US dollars / barrel in September, the average price of Brent crude oil in October was 93.
4 US dollars / barrel, and Brent crude oil closed at 83 US dollars / barrel on December 5, crude oil prices, the economic "barometer" has shown a continuous downward trend
。 Chemical prices have also declined, with 22 of the 46 inorganic chemicals monitored in October falling year-on-year, an increase of 10 from September; The average price of the 87 organic chemicals under key monitoring decreased year-on-year in 54, an increase of 6 from September; In particular
, the price decline of synthetic materials is more obvious.
The downward trend in product price fluctuations is likely to continue next year, and the price challenge facing petrochemical products next year will be the most direct and severe, of course, Sinopec products are also facing the pressure
of export contraction.

3.
The "four major opportunities" of China's economy and petrochemical industry next year

Next year is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a key year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, a new journey for the new government, and the most important third plenary session of the previous plenary session in the second half of the year; China's international environment will also improve significantly next year, the results of the first year of RCEP this year are obvious, and its depth and breadth will be further expanded next year and in the future; China-EU relations will be better next year, because China, as the world's strongest market, the most complete and stable industrial chain and supply chain, the EU needs to deepen cooperation with China to get out of the current predicament, as illustrated by the visit of the German Chancellor, the locomotive of the EU economy; Although Sino-US relations have more competitive elements, next year will be to explore cooperation and détente as the main keynote, the Bali meeting of the two heads of state a month ago is a positive start, the recent high-level delegations of the two countries are negotiating to implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state in Bali and next year's high-level consultations and cooperation, whether the United States can raise interest rates to curb inflation can achieve the expected effect also needs more cooperation from China
.
The superposition of these domestic and international factors will bring new opportunities for China's economic development and will have a strong driving effect
.
China's economy grew 3 percent in the first three quarters of this year and around 3.
5 percent for the year, and at best it could be closer to 4 percent
.
Although this year's growth rate has not reached the 5.
5% set at the beginning of the year, which is not fast in history, the annual economic total can be close to 120 trillion yuan, an increase of about 5 trillion yuan, equivalent to more than 700 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to Turkey's economic total last year, which is not small
.
Next year, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has made it clear that it will continue to adhere to the principle of steadiness and seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, highlight the work of stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, and promote the overall improvement of economic operation
.
From the perspective of policy and opportunities, China's economic growth rate next year will definitely be higher than this year, reaching 5%, or even higher, so next year's China's economy will continue to improve and continue to grow
.
Next year, we should focus on grasping the "four major opportunities":

First, new opportunities
in the opening year of the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress to be fully implemented.
General Secretary Xi Jinping said at the Politburo meeting: "Next year is the first year
to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China once again reiterated that development is the first priority for the party to govern and rejuvenate the country, and stressed that "without a solid material and technological foundation, it is impossible to build a modern and powerful socialist country in an all-round way.
"
This fully proves that the Party Central Committee attaches great importance to and positioning development, and is consistent with
the understanding of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee that "development is the foundation and key to solving all problems in our country.
" This also proves that the Party Central Committee has faced up to the gap in China's development, China's total economic volume has ranked second in the world for 12 consecutive years, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for two consecutive years, 114.
4 trillion yuan last year, about 17.
73 trillion US dollars, but the per capita is only 12,500 US dollars, ranking 60th in the world per capita; China's per capita GDP is only about 1/6 of the United States, about 1/3 of Japan, and about 1/4
of Germany, Britain and France.
Only development, and only high-quality development, can lay a solid material and technological foundation
for building a modern socialist power in an all-round way.
What does the country need to develop and the economy rely on? Industrial economy and real economy are the key, which is why the report of the 20th National Congress particularly emphasized: building a modern industrial system and insisting on focusing on the core essence of economic development on the real economy
.
In the final analysis, enterprises are the key, because a strong enterprise makes the country strong, and if the enterprise prospers, the country is prosperous, which is a new important opportunity
for our Chinese and foreign enterprises.
In particular, the latest emphasis of the 20th National Congress that "high-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country", foreign-funded enterprises and some domestic innovative enterprises are important components and promoters and contributors to high-quality economic development due to their high-end product structure, high technical level and strong innovation ability, and have more opportunities than enterprises engaged in traditional industries and the production of bulk basic products
.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also emphasized that "Chinese-style modernization is modernization that takes the path of peaceful development.
"
Promote high-level opening-up, reasonably reduce the negative list for foreign investment access, protect the rights and interests of foreign investment in accordance with the law, and create a market-oriented, rule-of-law, and international first-class business environment
.
Let the Chinese market become the world's market, the shared market, and everyone's market, and inject more positive energy into the international community, which provides new opportunities
for foreign-funded enterprises to deepen China's development.

The second is to scientifically and accurately optimize new opportunities for new changes in epidemic prevention and control
.
On November 10, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee listened to the report on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and studied and deployed 20 measures to further optimize the prevention and control work, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan held a symposium at the National Health Commission on November 30, listening to the opinions and suggestions of experts from relevant parties, said that with the weakening of the pathogenicity of Omicron virus, the popularization of vaccination, and the accumulation of prevention and control experience, China's epidemic prevention and control is facing a new situation and new tasks
。 On December 7, the Comprehensive Group of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council to Respond to the New Crown Epidemic issued the "New Ten Points" to further optimize the prevention and control of the epidemic, the core contents of which were further optimized as follows: First, optimize the risk area policy, "designate high-risk areas according to buildings, units, floors, and households, and shall not arbitrarily expand to communities, communities, and streets (townships); No temporary lockdowns of all kinds; For high-risk areas, it is necessary to quickly seal and solve quickly, and high-risk areas that have not been newly infected for 5 consecutive days should be unblocked in time"
.
Second, optimize nucleic acid testing: "Do not carry out nucleic acid testing for all employees according to administrative regions, reduce the scope and frequency of testing; Except for specific places, a negative nucleic acid test certificate is not required, and the health code is not checked; Cross-regional mobile personnel shall not be checked for negative nucleic acid certificates and health codes, and landing inspections shall no longer be carried out.
"
Third, optimize the isolation policy, "asymptomatic infections and mild illnesses with home isolation conditions are generally isolated at home, and those whose conditions worsen are promptly transferred to designated hospitals for treatment; Close contacts who meet the conditions for home isolation will be quarantined at home for 5 days, and released after a negative nucleic acid test on the 5th day"
.
On the basis of the important results and experience of the early epidemic prevention and control, the optimization measures made by the current "New Ten" are more scientific and precise, and those who have travel experience this week should experience the obvious changes of the "New Ten", I believe that after the Spring Festival, the measures will be more scientific, people's response will be more calm, ideological understanding will be more mature, psychological preparation will be more sufficient, and the beginning of spring next year will begin to enter a new stage
of normalization of production and operation, normalization of social activities, and normalization of daily life 。 From now on, community lockdown, street lockdown, and even Pudong Puxi will never happen again, and our company's production and operation will no longer be affected by logistics obstruction and supply chain interruption, which provides the greatest guarantee
for the stable operation of enterprise production and operation, and the safety and sustainability of the industrial chain and supply chain.

The third is a new opportunity
to implement the 14th Five-Year Plan in a critical year.
Next year is the middle year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is a key year to carry forward the work from the top to the bottom, and the good or bad work of next year is directly related to whether the tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan can be implemented and whether the goals can be achieved.
Therefore, when analyzing and studying next year's economic work deployment on December 6, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee requested that to do a good job in the economic work next year and the year after, we must take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guide, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, solidly promote Chinese-style modernization, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, with special emphasis on highlighting stable growth, stable employment, and The work of stabilizing prices, effectively preventing and resolving major risks, promoting the overall improvement of economic operation, achieving effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity, and making a good start
for the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country 。 The Political Bureau of the Central Committee has set the tone for next year's economic work, clarified the focus and policy orientation, and next year is a key year for the implementation of a number of major projects and key projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", superimposed on the 20th National Congress to focus on the future development of advanced manufacturing, new energy, electronic information, biotechnology and other strategic emerging industries, as well as a new round of international competition in digital economy, aerospace and other key areas, the petrochemical industry as an important pillar industry of the national economy will usher in
。

Fourth, new opportunities
for China's strong market demand and potential.
China's 1.
4 billion people have a huge real market and huge demand potential in the future, and the huge demand for food will inevitably create a huge demand for agrochemicals such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films.
The output and ownership of automobiles and new energy vehicles have been the world's first for many years, and will be the world's first consumer market for synthetic materials and their composite materials, sealing and bonding materials, coatings, tires, etc.
, and the world's first mobile phone output will be a huge market for film materials, display materials, and electronic chemicals; The first domestic commercial large aircraft C919 has been delivered and put into operation this year, more than 800 orders have been signed, and relevant institutions at home and abroad have made predictions: in the 20 years of 2019~2039, China's aviation market needs to add 7576 passenger aircraft, usually the ratio of wide and narrow passenger aircraft is 1:2, that is to say, 737, C919 this narrow-body passenger aircraft need about 5000 aircraft, according to Airbus and Boeing accounted for 70%, C919 only accounted for 30% of the market share, also need 1500 C919, If you add the C929 wide-body model under development, this is a huge market
for new chemical materials and their composite materials, aviation plexiglass, aviation coatings and interior materials.
In particular, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power, a quality power, a aerospace power, a transportation power, a network power, and a digital China "six powers" goals, each of which is inseparable from the support and support of new chemical materials and their composite materials and high-end petrochemical products, which are also new opportunities
for our petrochemical industry and many Chinese and foreign petrochemical enterprises.
In recent years, the Chinese market has consumed more than 120 million tons of synthetic resin every year, and more than
130 million tons were consumed last year and the year before that, although affected by the epidemic.
In the first 9 months of this year, China's consumption of synthetic resin has approached 96 million tons, of which imports have exceeded 20 million tons; In the first nine months, the consumption of refined oil products was 246 million tons, the consumption of methanol was more than 52 million tons (more than 66 million tons last year and more than 67 million tons the year before), and the market consumption of organic chemicals, specialty chemicals and a variety of inorganic chemical products was also the world's first
.
It is expected that next year, with the scientific and precise prevention and control of the epidemic, social activities and daily life returning to normal, and production and operation have achieved stable operation, China's consumer market will be a confident situation next year; It is expected that next year's crude oil consumption will be higher than 720 million tons, refined oil consumption will be more than 320 million tons, and synthetic resin consumption will be about 130 million tons
.
In addition, next year's real estate market recovery will be a high probability event, so that building materials, home appliance materials, automotive materials and textile materials will generate new market demand, China's vast domestic demand market and stable growth expectations, will continue to be the world's petrochemical industry sustainable operation of the "stabilizer" and growth "locomotive"
.