Fu Chengyu: Energy Security in a Complex International Environment

On July 23, under the guidance of China Federation of Industrial Economics and China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the 3rd China Energy and Chemical Industry Forum sponsored by China Chemical Industry News Co.
, Ltd.
was successfully held
.
At the forum, a number of guests focused on the high-quality development of China's energy and chemical industries under the new development situation to seek the general trend, grasp the trend, and look forward to the future, and contributed to a splendid and gluttonous feast
.
Today, the wonderful speech of Fu Chengyu, member of the Standing Committee of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former chairman of Sinopec Group, is published to give readers a sneak peek
.

In the international context of great changes unseen in a century, the complexity and uncertainty of world changes have far exceeded our previous cognitive capabilities
.
In predicting the possible future trend of the situation and its impact on the future world pattern, we vaguely feel that something more complicated, more serious, and more beyond our imagination has yet to come
.
Therefore, we must follow the requirements of the Party Central Committee, use bottom-line thinking, plan from the worst to the best, and strive to maintain the security of China's own development and achieve safe development in the complex and severe international environment
.
In today's new international environment, we use a new perspective to re-examine our country's energy security issues
.

Energy security is a real and urgent issue for China

With the continuous expansion of China's economic scale, energy consumption has also reached an unprecedented level
.
After China's foreign dependence on oil exceeds 74%, its dependence on natural gas also exceeds 46%
.
With such a large country, such a large economic scale, and such a large dependence on foreign oil and natural gas, the security of China's economic development is always at risk
.

Solving China's energy security problems is realistic, urgent and cannot wait
.

my country has the potential and ability to solve the problem of energy security

The issue of energy security is essentially an issue of economic security development
.
In today's complex and severe international environment, to re-examine our country's energy security, we must prepare for the worst and strive for the best
.
The so-called worst thing is to prepare for the situation that overseas oil and natural gas supply is cut off, and our energy also has the ability to guarantee the security of China's economic development
.
President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that the issue of energy security should be firmly in his own hands
.
We have to do a good job of implementing it
.
Does China have this capability? The answer is yes
.
China can fully guarantee the security of energy security and economic development under extreme and supply cuts
.
We have to have this confidence, and we also have this potential
.
So, where is the energy potential of our country?

First, China is both a big energy consumer and a big energy producer
.
70% of China's total primary energy consumption is domestically produced
.
Second, China's existing energy potential has not been fully utilized
.
China's economic aggregate is large, but the quality and level of economic development is not very high
.
China's industrialization process has come to an end, and our level of industrialization is also very extensive
.
The use and management of energy in China, both in terms of system and policy, is not based on the unified planning and management of energy efficiency, but from meeting the energy consumption and total demand, resulting in a large amount of energy waste
.
Third, energy saving and improving energy efficiency are the most realistic and effective energy resources in China
.
For a long time, the central government has repeatedly emphasized the national policy of giving priority to saving, which has also achieved good results, but the potential is still huge
.
The key is that China's energy use and management does not put energy efficiency in the first place, nor does it make unified planning and assessment on energy efficiency
.
As a result, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is far higher than the world average, 1.
7 times the world average, and 2 to 3 times that of developed countries
.
It doesn't make sense, but there's a reason for it
.
The most fundamental reason is that China has not carried out unified planning and management from the perspective of energy efficiency in all aspects of energy production, energy conversion, energy transportation and energy use, and there is a huge potential for energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement
.
In terms of energy saving potential, we can save at least 30% to 40% of energy consumption to achieve the same total GDP
.
Therefore, I propose to set up a leading group at the national level to formulate plans, systems, policies and assessment methods for energy efficiency management, fully release the huge potential of China's energy, and firmly grasp energy security in our own hands
.

In addition, another greater potential for China's energy development is new energy
.
In the international environment of addressing climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the development of new energy represented by solar energy and wind energy is in full swing
.
China has been at the forefront of the world in the field of new energy and has the basic conditions for large-scale and rapid development
.
Whether from the perspective of energy security or from the perspective of high-quality sustainable and safe development of China's economy, new energy will be the protagonist in the future
.
According to past calculations, China's per capita GDP will double by 2030, and at least double by 2050, when the demand for electricity may reach about three times that of today
.
Most of these future energy demand increments will come from new energy sources
.
Therefore, vigorously developing new energy is not only to solve the long-term and reliable guarantee of China's energy security, but also to promote China's energy structure adjustment, industrial upgrading, economic structure adjustment and economic transformation and development through scientific and technological innovation and technological progress.
Major strategic issues
.
As long as we firmly grasp the two handles of saving energy, improving energy efficiency, and vigorously developing new energy construction, China will be able to cope with extreme challenges in energy and ensure the safe development of the national economy
.

Seize the opportunity to make an early layout and build a new map of international energy supply and demand

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will further evolve, and will lead to further differentiation of the existing international political, economic and energy landscape
.
Among them, energy supply and demand will form a new plate pattern
.
Sanctions will allow Europe to gradually and completely eliminate energy supplies from Russia
.
And Russia has to seek new alternative markets
.
This has created a rare historical opportunity for China to build a new international pattern of energy supply and demand through energy cooperation.
It has also created favorable conditions for China to unite with international forces, expand regional economic and political platforms, and respond to the restraint and suppression of the United States and the West.

.

We can consider the following aspects: First, establish energy cooperation agencies in international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS Organization, formulate energy cooperation plans, plans, principles, mechanisms and specific operating rules, and implement specific cooperation projects
.
The second is to encourage Chinese companies, especially private companies, to cooperate with Russian energy companies
.
The third is to shift from energy trade to direct energy resources investment and cooperation
.
This was almost impossible in the past, but is now a real possibility
.
The first is to strive to participate in the shares of foreign investment recovered by Russia.
The further the Russian economy is, the more difficult it will be, and the more foreign investment will be needed
.
Due to Western sanctions, Chinese companies have the opportunity to participate in the acquisition of Western companies' shares in Russia, and direct investment in Russian resources is also possible
.

In short, we need to seriously study how to better utilize Russia's low-cost energy resources on a large scale
.