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According to a new analysis released this week by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, global wind power is expected to increase by an average of 71 GW per year between 2019 and 2023 and 76 GW
between 2024 and 2028.
"A 5GW upgrade in the global offshore industry will generate 129GW of new capacity and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%," explained
Luke Lewandowski, Director of Power & Renewables, Wood Mackenzie.
"Overall, the outlook is positive, with global wind continuing to thrive
on economic and social benefits.
"
First, the U.
S.
wind market improved by 16% from the first quarter forecast, 3.
8 GW
in 2021 alone.
Lewandowski explained: "Until the full price incentive expires in 2020, eligible offtakers are focusing on utilizing the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) and then phasing it down
.
In 2017, developers who qualified for wind installations were eligible to receive 80% of the full credit line, spurring the growth of the
U.
S.
wind market.
New state-level targets in the U.
S.
and enhancements to the National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mechanism are expected to support demand
beyond PTC.
”
At the same time, short-term upgrades in Brazil and Mexico will drive a slight increase of 1% in the forecast for Latin America, driven by the Brazilian free market and the growth
in Mexican commercial and industrial (C&I) demand in 2019.
"The forecast for Northern Europe was revised upward by 6 percent," Lewandowski said, adding, "Challenges and undersubscription in Germany and France have hampered growth
.
" However, growing interest in subsidy-free projects and a surge in demand in the Nordic C&I sector supported Europe's 0.
6%
sequential growth.
”
Due to political instability, immature support mechanisms, and increasing competition from solar energy, Africa's development has been slow, with a projected decline of 2%.
"Africa's commitment to green development is more common than ever," Lewandowski said, "and renewable energy is attractive in the region because wind and solar projects are being built much faster than other energy sources
.
" However, as solar energy becomes more economical, Africa's wind power market will face stiff competition
.
”
"China's onshore wind developers are eager to comply with a new policy that calls for projects to be put in by the end of 2020 in order to take advantage of feed-in tariffs (FITs) before the start of the subsidy-free era," Lewandowski continued, "If current levels of offshore FIT are to be utilized, offshore developers must commission projects
by the end of 2021.
" ”
However, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is not entirely positive
.
Current market conditions in India have severely impacted the near-term outlook for the region, resulting in a 4%
month-on-month decline.
The government-imposed auction cap prices and delays in awarding project commissions have significantly slowed India's near-term growth expectations
.
According to a new analysis released this week by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, global wind power is expected to increase by an average of 71 GW per year between 2019 and 2023 and 76 GW
between 2024 and 2028.
"A 5GW upgrade in the global offshore industry will generate 129GW of new capacity and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%," explained
Luke Lewandowski, Director of Power & Renewables, Wood Mackenzie.
"Overall, the outlook is positive, with global wind continuing to thrive
on economic and social benefits.
"
First, the U.
S.
wind market improved by 16% from the first quarter forecast, 3.
8 GW
in 2021 alone.
Lewandowski explained: "Until the full price incentive expires in 2020, eligible offtakers are focusing on utilizing the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) and then phasing it down
.
In 2017, developers who qualified for wind installations were eligible to receive 80% of the full credit line, spurring the growth of the
U.
S.
wind market.
New state-level targets in the U.
S.
and enhancements to the National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mechanism are expected to support demand
beyond PTC.
”
At the same time, short-term upgrades in Brazil and Mexico will drive a slight increase of 1% in the forecast for Latin America, driven by the Brazilian free market and the growth
in Mexican commercial and industrial (C&I) demand in 2019.
"The forecast for Northern Europe was revised upward by 6 percent," Lewandowski said, adding, "Challenges and undersubscription in Germany and France have hampered growth
.
" However, growing interest in subsidy-free projects and a surge in demand in the Nordic C&I sector supported Europe's 0.
6%
sequential growth.
”
Due to political instability, immature support mechanisms, and increasing competition from solar energy, Africa's development has been slow, with a projected decline of 2%.
"Africa's commitment to green development is more common than ever," Lewandowski said, "and renewable energy is attractive in the region because wind and solar projects are being built much faster than other energy sources
.
" However, as solar energy becomes more economical, Africa's wind power market will face stiff competition
.
”
"China's onshore wind developers are eager to comply with a new policy that calls for projects to be put in by the end of 2020 in order to take advantage of feed-in tariffs (FITs) before the start of the subsidy-free era," Lewandowski continued, "If current levels of offshore FIT are to be utilized, offshore developers must commission projects
by the end of 2021.
" ”
However, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is not entirely positive
.
Current market conditions in India have severely impacted the near-term outlook for the region, resulting in a 4%
month-on-month decline.
The government-imposed auction cap prices and delays in awarding project commissions have significantly slowed India's near-term growth expectations
.