Five consecutive yangs! Saudi oil facilities are hit by air strikes again, and crude oil tries to hit new highs

Recently, crude oil has shown a continuous strengthening trend
.
Among them, the main 03 contract rose as high as 536 yuan / barrel, once again moving towards the record high set yesterday
.

From the daily K-line, the current crude oil has pulled out five consecutive Yang.

So the question is, what is causing the continued strengthening of the market? What should we think about the future market?

Saudi oil attacked again:

There is no doubt that the surprise attack by the Houthis in Yemen on Saudi oil facilities has largely mobilized the enthusiasm
of market bulls.

On the evening of January 17, local time, Yemen's Houthi armed spokesman Yahya.
Saria issued a video statement, saying that on the same day, Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched a total of five ballistic missile attacks and a large number of drone attacks on a number of important sensitive targets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai
, United Arab Emirates.

Yahya said the attack on the UAE was a response to
the increasingly aggressive Saudi-led multinational coalition's airstrikes against Yemen.
Yahya also warned foreign companies in the UAE, as well as UAE citizens and foreigners working and living in the UAE, to stay away from important local sites and facilities in the coming period to prevent accidental injuries
from attacks.

As we all know, Saudi Arabia has always been supportive of the current Yemeni government, which is the direct cause
of frequent conflicts between the Houthis and the country.

In September 2014, Yemeni Houthi forces seized the capital, Sana'a, and later occupied southern Yemen
.
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia and other countries launched a military operation
codenamed "Decisive Storm" against the Houthis.
In December 2018, the Yemeni government and the Houthis, mediated by the United Nations, agreed on important issues such as the Hodeidah ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners of war, but soon the two sides accused each other of breaking the ceasefire
.
In 2021, Saudi Arabia repeatedly proposed a peaceful solution to the Yemeni crisis, which was welcomed by the Yemeni coalition government, but the Houthis called it "nothing new" and demanded that Saudi Arabia end the blockade
of Yemen.

Nuclear talks stalled: Iran pressed the United States to make decisions on key issues

In addition to the market panic caused by the Houthi attacks, the news of the slow progress of Iran's nuclear negotiations has also brought direct benefits to the market
.

Yesterday (January 17), Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Khatibzadeh said that the negotiations between the parties to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue have reached agreement in many aspects, but key issues such as the lifting of sanctions against Iran have not yet been resolved, and the United States is particularly required to make a political decision
.

In response to US Secretary of State Blinken's recent remarks on the resumption of US-Iran implementation negotiations, Khatibzadeh responded and suggested that the US take the initiative and focus on practical plans
.
-- According to reports, Blinken said on the 13th that there are only a few weeks left to decide whether the United States and Iran can resume compliance, and once the negotiations fail, the United States will review other plans
with its allies.

Iran is the world's fourth largest oil reserve, and whether the country's production of more than 2 million barrels per day can be officially released has always been a key factor
affecting the supply expectations of the crude oil market.
Relevant people have previously made it clear that if the United States lifts sanctions against Iran, the country's oil production will soar from 2.
1 million barrels to 3.
8 million barrels
.
At that time, the crisis of international crude oil supply shortage will be directly solved
.

Unfortunately, at the current pace, it is still difficult for the two sides to reach consensus
on some sensitive issues.
Some people even believe that the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's crude oil facilities is also Iran's disguised pressure
on this negotiation.
The reason is that the attack comes at a time when Mohammed Abdusalam, a high-level official of the Houthis, happened to be visiting Tehran, where he met
with the Iranian president and other officials, reported by Houthis-run Al Masirah TV.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said: "Reports of damage to tankers and warehouses will worry oil market watchers, who are also closely watching the direction of the nuclear dialogue between the United States and Iran, with time running out for negotiators and the risk of a deterioration in the regional security climate rising
.
" ”

Institutional view: The crude oil market may continue to tighten

While the market is soaring, major institutions are also bullish on
the future market of crude oil.

Vitol Group traders said the high prices were justified and futures prices could move further higher, although Monday's gains were influenced by economic data from major Asian countries
.

Louise Dickson, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said, "The oil price upturn has continued into the third week of January, and the drivers behind the optimism have been tightening since 2022, and the mild impact of Omicron has raised expectations for oil demand this year, while at the same time production declines, especially from OPEC+ countries, have led to tighter
supply.
" ”