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Fitch, the world's authoritative market consulting organization, recently released a report that the average price of coking coal in 2019 is expected to be about
195 US dollars / ton.
Analysts predict that prices will continue to move higher
as the US-China trade war increases the likelihood of further Chinese government support for the slowing economy and strong demand from China's steel industry.
On the supply side, Fitch expects Australia's underproduction in the coming quarters to keep the market tight
as large, diversified mining companies embark on the pace of decarbonization.
While Fitch analysts are more positive about coking coal prices in the coming quarters than they were a year ago, they see a long-term easing as China's steel industry recovers and demand for Australian coking coal weakens
.
Fitch predicts that as the US-China trade war escalates again, the Chinese government is likely to be inclined to provide further economic support to domestic industries, especially in the infrastructure sector, which will boost steel production and ultimately curb coal demand
.
While India, the largest importer of Australian coking coal, saw an 11.
7% year-on-year decline in coking coal imports from Australia in the first quarter of 2019, China was Australia's second-largest importer of coking coal, up 35%
year-on-year.
Longer term, beyond 2020, Fitch expects Australian coking coal prices to continue their multi-year downward trend, mainly due to a slowdown in China's steel industry and environmental concerns
about restricting coal imports.
Looking ahead, Fitch forecasts that China will continue to maintain its dominance in the coking coal production market, with absolute coking coal production increasing from 5.
36 million mt in 2019 to 5.
51 million mt in 2028, and production in 2028 tripling that of Australia, the second-largest producer, (1.
84 million mt).
By 2026, Russia will overtake Indonesia to become the world's third-largest coking coal producer, and over the years, the global market share of China, Australia and Indonesia will slowly decrease, followed by the growth of
Russia, India and Mongolia.
Fitch, the world's authoritative market consulting organization, recently released a report that the average price of coking coal in 2019 is expected to be about
195 US dollars / ton.
Analysts predict that prices will continue to move higher
as the US-China trade war increases the likelihood of further Chinese government support for the slowing economy and strong demand from China's steel industry.
On the supply side, Fitch expects Australia's underproduction in the coming quarters to keep the market tight
as large, diversified mining companies embark on the pace of decarbonization.
While Fitch analysts are more positive about coking coal prices in the coming quarters than they were a year ago, they see a long-term easing as China's steel industry recovers and demand for Australian coking coal weakens
.
Fitch predicts that as the US-China trade war escalates again, the Chinese government is likely to be inclined to provide further economic support to domestic industries, especially in the infrastructure sector, which will boost steel production and ultimately curb coal demand
.
While India, the largest importer of Australian coking coal, saw an 11.
7% year-on-year decline in coking coal imports from Australia in the first quarter of 2019, China was Australia's second-largest importer of coking coal, up 35%
year-on-year.
Longer term, beyond 2020, Fitch expects Australian coking coal prices to continue their multi-year downward trend, mainly due to a slowdown in China's steel industry and environmental concerns
about restricting coal imports.
Looking ahead, Fitch forecasts that China will continue to maintain its dominance in the coking coal production market, with absolute coking coal production increasing from 5.
36 million mt in 2019 to 5.
51 million mt in 2028, and production in 2028 tripling that of Australia, the second-largest producer, (1.
84 million mt).
By 2026, Russia will overtake Indonesia to become the world's third-largest coking coal producer, and over the years, the global market share of China, Australia and Indonesia will slowly decrease, followed by the growth of
Russia, India and Mongolia.
