Feed price trend in 2005

Introduction: to control the production cost of animal husbandry this year, Shen Zhenzhao, director of the national feed and feed work office, said recently that this year's feed industry will not fluctuate as much as last year, and the feed price will fall steadily, which is conducive to reducing the production cost of animal husbandry Feed is in the middle of the animal husbandry chain, which is affected by the price of raw materials in the upstream and the price and stock of animal products in the downstream For many years engaged in feed raw material industry analysis, feed price is mainly affected by the price of raw materials, the market of animal husbandry products only has a slight regulatory effect on feed price From the analysis of feed price in 2004, the trend of feed price is basically similar to that of bulk raw materials (corn and soybean meal) There will be no significant fluctuation in the price of raw materials In 2004, the price of raw materials for feedstuff fluctuated greatly not only driven by the increase of domestic grain price, but also by human factors Soybean meal price is driven by foreign futures, and Chinese buyers are fighting each other, so it is difficult to form group advantages In addition, the country tightens monetary policy, which greatly affects the raw material Trade and greatly fluctuates the raw material price According to the lessons of last year, China's raw material traders will be more cautious in purchasing and reduce the fluctuation of raw material prices to a certain extent According to the information collected at present, the soybean supply exceeds the demand and the trend pressure in the later period is obvious There are still 2 / 3 inventories of domestic soybean in the main production areas, and the output of Heilongjiang Province alone has reached 9.7 million tons In addition, the output of other provinces is also quite large Up to now, there are still 60% - 64% of American soybeans for sale Thirdly, the weather in South America is suitable, some soybeans have been harvested, and will be listed in large quantities in March There are a large number of soybean sources in the three major soybean producing areas in the world, and the soybean price cannot rise In 2004, there was a historic high yield of corn in the world, which put great pressure on the price of corn The main components of corn consumption in China are feed consumption, industrial consumption and edible consumption According to the analysis of the authority on the feed industry, in 2004, the consumption of feed corn was 94 million tons, and in 2005, the consumption is expected to be flat or slightly increased; the industrial consumption increased by 10%, mainly driven by the increase of fuel ethanol, with a total amount of 15.5-16 million tons; the consumption of food remained at 16.5 million tons, with a total of 127-129 million tons (excluding exports) According to our analysis of consumption data, China's corn consumption has a linear relationship of increasing 2.7 million tons annually since 1992 Therefore, it can be estimated that the corn consumption in 2005 should be 127.25 million tons The increase of consumption and historical high yield will be offset to a certain extent At the same time, China's corn has a certain regional advantage in export According to comprehensive analysis, China's corn will rise slightly in 2005, which is expected to be high between 1300-1380 yuan / ton The pig market, which keeps a close eye on the rise and fall of pig prices last year, not only benefits pig farmers, but also enables pig producers to take a share of the market Due to the soaring price of pigs, so that pig farmers have enough profits, pig farmers are more willing to use some brand guaranteed feed As a result, the sales volume of a group of enterprises such as dakangdi, which take pig material as the fist product, increased rapidly last year But this year's trend of pig feed will be affected by the price of pigs Liang suibo, manager of Guangzhou Dekang feed company, analyzed in an interview with reporters that the trend of pig price next year will affect the production and sales situation of pig feed If the price of pig is still firm, the production and sales of pig feed will remain optimistic If the price of pig fluctuates substantially, the breeding profit will be reduced Some farmers will recalculate the feed cost, and may switch to a lower cost one Breeding methods, such as using cheaper feed or looking for other substitutes According to the analysis of market participants, there is still pressure to reduce the price of feed Although most of the feed in Guangdong and Guangxi took many measures such as price reduction or promotion in November last year, the current price of raw materials is basically the same as that at the end of 2002 and the beginning of 2003, but the price of feed is much higher than that at the end of 2003, there is still a great pressure to reduce the price of feed Some market participants also pointed out that this year is a year for pig industry to compete with internal forces As the stock of pigs will be significantly improved this year, the feed market will be further expanded However, facing the uncertain market, how to position the enterprise is the key Is the main market of products large-scale pig farms or scattered farmers? Directly facing the farmers or dealers? In the case of a decline in pig prices, what might happen to customers? How to do customer service? All these will test feed enterprises This year's pig feed market is not necessarily those famous brands, it depends on who can better grasp the market trend and make timely adjustments The merger war in the poultry market is more fierce Last year, despite the impact of avian influenza, bird breeding is still profitable throughout the year Especially by the end of the year, the price of chicken and duck is at a relatively high price, and the farmers are satisfied Last year, the merger and acquisition of poultry production enterprises was fierce, and it was obvious that the sales benefits of large factories were both good Small enterprises, such as Wang Xiaoer, celebrated the new year? Less than one year In the middle of last year, some enterprises in the Pearl River Delta had a rare phenomenon of queuing up to buy feed From the work report of the annual meeting of Guangzhou feed industry association, this kind of fierce battle situation can also be reflected The number of enterprises with annual output of 100000 tons in Guangzhou increased from 4 in 2003 to 7 in 2004 Nanbao group has a new plant with a capacity of 50 tons when it is put into production All major enterprises have plans to increase production lines in the next year Due to the impact of SARS and avian influenza for two consecutive years, the price of raw materials fluctuated greatly, some farmers with poor capital and technology went bankrupt or stopped production, and the breeding of birds became more and more large-scale and collectivized, which also accelerated the survival of feed enterprises Through asset restructuring and merger, feed enterprises also became more and more collectivized Due to merger and other factors, the market should be re divided At the same time, the breeding level of farmers is increasing, and the competition in the poultry market is unprecedented, which has higher requirements on the price and quality of feed There is a large market space for the polar differentiation of hard pellet feed for aquatic products, and the varieties are also very different The high-grade hard pellet feed is mainly shrimp feed In the process of interviewing the directors of some shrimp enterprises, they all said that the sales volume of last year's shrimp market was slightly reduced due to diseases, anti-dumping and other factors, and the debt situation was still relatively serious This has to make shrimp enterprises in this year's sales process to choose a more stable sales strategy, the implementation of low profit cash sales At the same time, after withstanding the test of last year's terminal market, all enterprises are also faced with some pressure of price reduction this year, but the final determinant is the price of raw materials, among which fish meal is the most important one, so many shrimp enterprises are currently reserving fish meal to varying degrees Due to the relatively high technical content of shrimp ingredients, in the future market, the old high-quality shrimp ingredients will be further respected, and some new small and medium-sized brands will have to work hard in the sales channels to get a share Relatively speaking, the intermediate profits of dealers are likely to be further depressed, and the market of shrimp enterprises will be further subdivided The low-end hard pellet feed will face many challenges in 2005 The extensive technology determines that its price is greatly affected by the price of raw materials If the market price of raw materials tends to be flat in 2005 and falls steadily, its price will follow the law At the same time, due to the inherent disadvantages (simple processing, low digestibility) of aquatic hard pellet feed, it will be challenged by expanded feed in the traditional four fish field It can be predicted that its market share will be further reduced in the coming years The quality of ingredients and raw materials is the basic guarantee of quality The supply of powder this year is determined by the cultivation quantity of turtle and eel, which are the main breeding species using powder Last year was a low rebound for eel industry Everyone is optimistic about this year and decided to do a big job However, due to the decrease of eel stock supply, the stock of eel stock is less than expected this year, which will affect the sale of eel stock On the contrary, most farmers lost money this year, but according to statistics, the amount of seedlings in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 10%, which will make this year's turtle powder market full of variables In 2005, the variable factors faced by the powder market are limited, but due to its low entry threshold, coupled with the value orientation of domestic farmers, the characteristics of breeding structure and regional distribution, the coexistence of large and small powder enterprises will still exist Although the brand powder has technical advantages, it will still occupy a considerable market share due to its low price and flexible operation At the same time, the competition between brand materials and self ingredients will no longer be a life-threatening extreme way, but will benefit from their own production characteristics and costs In 2004, the market of expanded feed for aquatic products was booming According to industry insiders: last year, the capacity of local aquatic feed enterprises in Guangdong was less than 250000 tons, but the demand of the whole market was more than 1 million tons Such a large market capacity naturally attracts the attention of many feed factories, including those enterprises that did not involve in aquatic feed have plans to put into production lines However, the aquaculture puffed feed market still has its particularity (the investment of puffed equipment is high, and the acceptance of farmers is low) Its road ahead is broad, but not smooth In the capacity of 250000 tons, it mainly covers some species with mature breeding technology and relatively high profits, such as sea fish, frogs, famous and special fish, etc In the early stage of many enterprises, the sales policy adopted in this area is mainly based on the profit to set the price, which leads to the difficulty in improving the quality of expanded feed With the increasing competition, the expanded feed market will inevitably experience a process of quality improvement, that is, from price competition to quality competition In addition, a large part of the market demand of 1 million tons can use expanded feed, but now it still uses hard granular material, such as: four big fish breeding, tilapia breeding, etc How to guide this part of potential customers to use expanded feed is undoubtedly the focus of marketing work in the future At the same time, there are a lot of breeds that are still fed with fresh ice fish How to develop the counterpart feed of these breed will be the technical difficulty of many enterprises As a result, the focus of this year's expansion feed production enterprises is the simultaneous development of new product market and R & D