Fed interest rate hike expectations strengthened, Shanghai rubber continued to decline

Domestic spot prices dragged down by futures prices continue to fall sharply, spot prices are more fragile, market sell-off is obvious, traders have become active in shipments, and downstream factory purchases are still on-demand procurement, making market transactions appear light
.
The continuous light rain in domestic production areas has alleviated the drought, which is conducive to rubber tapping, and the price of domestic raw materials, especially in Yunnan production areas
, has fallen significantly.
Port dollar rubber prices have also begun to show a significant correction, from the perspective of forward quotations, forward prices weakened, reflecting that the market is not optimistic about the future market
.
Precipitation in southern Thailand began to increase, raw material production is expected to rise, supply is expected to be released slowly, and raw material prices in Thailand also show a continuous decline
.

In terms of substitutes: the price difference between tianjiao and synthetic rubber last week remained at a similar level compared with the previous week, but the price spread was still in a low position, and the firmness of synthetic rubber prices still supported the price of tianjiao
.
And in the later period, there were more overhauls of butadiene until June, and the price could still remain strong
.
In addition, it is still necessary to focus on the trend
of crude oil in the later stage.

Total domestic exchange inventories were 317467 tonnes (+3698) at the end of last week, and inventories continued to increase and hit a high level in recent years; The volume of futures warehouse receipts was 293,950 tons (+2,710), and warehouse receipts still maintained a growth trend
.
As of the 15th, the delivery volume of the 1605 contract was 125,000 tons, and the trading volume hit a new high this year, mainly related to the increase in delivery brands in the early stage, and there is still greater warehouse receipt pressure
on the September contract.
As of mid-May, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continued to decrease by 4.
9% from the end of last month, the decline increased, inventory fell to 230,200 tons, free trade zone inventory continued to decline, indicating that short-term domestic consumption has increased, later will see whether the decline can be sustained
.
However, from the year-on-year situation, this year's inventory is still higher than the same period last year, and the high level of overall inventory is still a factor
that suppresses the current price of tianjiao.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of May 20, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was 69.
27% (-0.
07%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 73.
24% (-0.
43%).

From the confirmation of terminal export and sales data, it is difficult for the later operating rate to rise
.
From the perspective of seasonal factors over the years, the later operating rate will remain and then begin to decline
slowly.

From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, due to the arrival of rain in China, the shortage of raw material supply caused by dry weather in the early stage has been alleviated, and the price of raw materials in the domestic Yunnan production area has also begun to fall significantly, and short-term support has no longer existed
.
The drought in Thailand has also eased, and the probability of a gradual increase in supply in the later period is higher
.
In the medium line, because of the arrival of the peak of tire production and the gradual approach of the preliminary cutting results of the two sides of the tire, the growth rate of downstream consumption will slow down, and with the advent of the cutting season, the supply will gradually be abundant without problems, so the supply and demand of the middle line of tianjiao will gradually turn to loose
.
Investors are advised to keep their bearish thinking
.