February 28 aluminum market noon comment

Thermal coal rose on Friday night, and the high of Lun aluminum fluctuated sharply to close at $3380
.
Shanghai aluminum opened low and went higher overnight, stabilizing at the 20-day moving average to close at 22600
.
Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy problems and doubtful production capacity of Rusal support aluminum prices, and are expected to continue to rise
in the medium term.
Shanghai aluminum short-term volatility below 24000 is gaining momentum, and it is still possible to continue to oscillate upward in the medium term
.
Upper pressure 24765, lower support 21000
.

Domestically, affected by the shutdown of electrolytic aluminum plants caused by the epidemic in Guangxi, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has tightened again, domestic production cuts superimposed on overseas production cuts, electrolytic aluminum prices have risen all the way, returning to a high level, and the average profit of smelters has once again reached a level
of more than 4,000 yuan.
At present, the number of domestic aluminum rod inventories is much higher than the same period of previous years, but the aluminum rod processing fee has still been raised, and the aluminum rod processing plant is optimistic about downstream consumption in the next year
.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has continued to pull up LME aluminum prices, but aluminum prices have fallen
as the United States announced that it will temporarily not impose sanctions on Rusal due to inflation considerations.
It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a high volatility trend, and the overall treatment will be more, and pay close attention to the changes in domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventory
.