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Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2204 reported 22630 down 260, LME aluminum closed at 3294 down 9; On the macro front, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the two eastern regions of Ukraine, the Russian stock market, exchange rate and bond market fell sharply, crude oil rose sharply in early trading, the situation in Russia and Ukraine escalated again, and the West began to impose sanctions; The four major banks in Guangzhou lowered mortgage interest rates, more cities joined in the relaxation, and the real estate policy continued to warm
.
Domestically, electrolytic aluminum enters the rapid resumption stage, Yunnan power is relieved, Yunnan aluminum, Shenhuo, etc.
can recover to the pre-production level, the next three months can resume production up to one million tons, Guangxi, Qinghai, Shanxi, Guizhou, Gansu and other provinces and regions also plan to start the resumption of production; The epidemic situation in Guangxi was lifted from lockdown, goods were gradually shipped, arrivals in Guangdong increased, and premium weakened
.
The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not affected real enterprises for the time being, and the domestic policies for stable growth and stable housing market have been continuously introduced, and the stabilization of real estate has promoted market sentiment; In the medium term, US inflation continues to rise, the Fed raises interest rates slowly, the level of domestic and foreign aluminum inventories is low, production capacity is still recovering, production has not been released for the time being, the peak season is coming, prices are supported, and over-fall can be appropriately bargained and long; Short-term spot pressure is large, spot discount is large, demand recovery is slow, production capacity recovery is expected to be large, price upward resistance is greater, it is expected that the price will remain high and volatile, it is recommended to wait and see
.
