-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
First, the macro aspect
First, the macro aspectDomestically,
In the first half of 2019, the economy will also decline by inertia, but under the superposition of fiscal and monetary policy and the strength of the cycle itself, the economy is expected to bottom
out in mid-2019.
In January, the growth rate of social finance and M2 has bottomed out, and monetary and financial data have been leading in the past, and the "policy bottom" is ahead of the "economic bottom"
.
On February 28, the Bureau of Statistics released China's official manufacturing PMI for February at 49.
2, below the previous value of 49.
5
.
The data fell below the boom-dry line for the third consecutive month, although it coincided with the Spring Festival period, but the short-term economy is still not optimistic, and it will take time
to solve the production and operation difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.
International aspect,
In the early morning of February 21, the Fed released the minutes of its January meeting: almost all officials want to announce the end of the balance sheet reduction program this year, and are not sure whether it is possible to raise interest rates
this year.
On the afternoon of February 24, local time in the United States, the seventh round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations ended
in Washington, the capital of the United States.
U.
S.
President Donald Trump said the talks had made substantial progress and that the U.
S.
would delay tariffs on Chinese products scheduled for March 1
.
On February 28, the US Department of Commerce released data showing that the annualized quarterly preliminary value of real GDP in the fourth quarter was 2.
6%, a sharp decline from the previous value of 3.
4%, but higher than the expected 2.
2%.
Growth fell below 3 percent for the full year but hit a three-year high
.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
After stabilizing after a volatile January period, copper prices began to rebound
sharply in February.
Shanghai copper continuously exceeded 49,000, 50,000 pressure level
.
During this period, the good news continued
.
The first is that the Sino-US trade negotiations took place in two rounds, in Beijing on the 14th-15th and in Washington
on the 21st-24th.
Judging from the atmosphere of the negotiations, it is mainly positive
.
Trump said he would delay U.
S.
tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports and postponed the deadline for reaching an agreement on March 1, directly causing Shanghai copper to stand at 50,000 in the last week of February
.
Coupled with the improvement of the capital surface, the short-term high volatility trend may continue
.
In terms of the market, the first half of this month is during
the Chinese New Year holiday.
After the holiday, the willingness of merchants to raise prices is higher, and the electrolytic copper premium is constantly raised, reaching a maximum of 150 yuan
in the middle of the month.
After delivery, market conditions changed, and as copper prices continued to rise, traders lowered their quotations, and spot copper discounts continued to expand
.
With the increase in the start of downstream manufacturers, the downstream taking of goods increases, but it is mainly based on bargain stocking, and the fear of heights is stronger
.
3.
Waste market
Waste market
Due to the substantial progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the recovery of downstream demand, copper prices generally maintained a low rebound trend in February, the main force of Shanghai copper mainly runs around 50,000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of bright copper in the market is 44,000-44,400 yuan / ton, the natural refined waste price difference has also widened to more than 1,000 yuan, scrap copper consumption demand has risen, and high-quality sources such as bright copper are more favored
.
After the holiday, with the rise in copper prices and the successive start of scrap copper merchants, the market atmosphere is high, and the shipment efforts of holders have increased, resulting in an increase in market supply, and downstream copper manufacturers have also expanded their replenishment needs, actively entered the market for procurement, and market transactions have improved
.
However, the good times did not last long after copper prices rose for many days, the end of the month began to pull back and repair, holders feared that the fall mood heated up and sold goods, but some merchants are still bullish on the copper market, temporarily selling wait-and-see, market mentality is different, but most downstream manufacturers into the market procurement enthusiasm has not decreased, and even increased the phenomenon of price receipt, so this month's scrap copper market trading overall improvement
.
4.
Trend forecast
Trend forecast
After the year, good news came out frequently, investor confidence recovered, and market funds actively entered the market; In terms of explicit inventory, the overall is still at a low level during the year, and seasonal inventory accumulation has begun in China; The Fed's interest rate hike was suspended, but GDP in the fourth quarter did not fall sharply as market expectations, and the short-term dollar remained high; Now that the United States has postponed the date of tariff increases, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether global trade can be further improved
in the later period.
Due to the easing of the macro environment, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly
during the peak season in March.
5.
Industry news
Industry news
1.
On February 14, Norway approved the mining of copper near the northernmost point of Europe, which is regarded as a touchstone
of the Arctic Circle.
The project, called Nussir ASA, will bring jobs and investment to the Kvalsund region, which has an estimated 72 million tonnes of copper ore, Norway's largest reserve, and Nussir says it plans to invest more than 1 billion Norwegian kroner ($115.
8 million) in mining in a way that has minimal impact on local life
.
2.
Reuters reported that the Norwegian government approved the construction of a copper mine near the northernmost point of Europe, and local Sami herders and fishermen have opposed the construction of copper mines
for many years.
There are an estimated 72 million tonnes of copper ore reserves in the region, and the Norwegian government plans to invest more than 1 billion kroner ($115.
8 million) in copper mining, while saying the plan will have minimal impact on local
lifestyles.
3.
Rio Tinto confirmed that after unremitting efforts, a large copper mine
called Winu has been discovered in the East Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Topology CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques revealed that the project is still in the early stages of exploration and there is still a lot of work to be done at a later stage, but the initial drilling results are pleasantly surprised
.
To be sure, this is a large copper-bullion mine and it is expected to move into Phase 2 exploration as soon as possible
.
4, Santiago on February 27 news, Chilean state-owned copper miner Codelco president Juan Benavides said that the company's Chilean Chuquicamata underground copper mine will start operation
in the middle of this year.
Codelco announced in 2018 that it would invest $5.
55 billion to convert the world's largest open-pit copper mine to underground copper
.
5.
The Yulong Copper Mine Reconstruction and Expansion Project was fully launched and the mobilization meeting was held
in Chengdu on February 17.
The goal of the project is to ensure that the annual production capacity of 18 million tons is built during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and the conditions
for trial production will be available by the end of 2020.
The reconstruction and expansion project of Yulong copper mine is the key core project of Western Mining, and the company expects that through 2~3 years of construction, the annual output of copper metal will increase from the current 30,000 tons to 120,000 tons
.
