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Trade Service
First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released a report showing that the global primary aluminum market was short of 859,000 tons in 2018
.
2.
According to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI), global primary aluminum production in January decreased by 23,000 tons from the previous month to 2.
185 million tons, down 33,000 tons
from the same period last year.
3.
Rusal has sought storage deals for about 300,000 tons of aluminum in recent weeks, reflecting the backlog
of inventory that may enter the global aluminum market after the United States lifts Rusal sanctions.
4.
Data show that China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 552,000 tons in January 2019, the highest export volume since January 2015, an increase of 4.
74% month-on-month and 23.
02%
year-on-year.
In recent months, China's aluminum export data has maintained a strong momentum; At the end of January, the United States lifted sanctions against Rusal, and the LME also canceled the temporary regulations prohibiting the storage of metal produced by RUSAL in LME warehouses, and with the lifting of Rusal sanctions, supply will gradually recover, which is expected to affect some of China's aluminum exports
.
5.
In January 2019, China's alumina imports reached 80,000 tons, a new high since April 2018, of which metallurgical-grade alumina imports accounted for nearly 85%, mainly from Xinjiang Zhonghe Co.
, Ltd.
and Hydro Aluminum (Beijing) Co.
, Ltd.
In terms of exports, in January 2019, China's alumina exports were 142,864 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.
15%, and the main export countries were Norway, India and Malaysia, etc.
, and the export volume remained at a high level, but there was a decline for three consecutive months
.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
This month, the trend of the Shanghai aluminum index is slightly single, the overall trend shows a volatile rise, the beginning of the month coincides with the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday, the Shanghai aluminum index still maintains a weak trend, and during the holiday, the market aluminum ingot inventory arrival increased significantly, putting aluminum prices under pressure, the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai aluminum index fell, the lowest intraday down to 13345, and then the spot firm, so that the aluminum price fell limited, in the macro recovery, the surrounding metal strongly driven, Shanghai aluminum followed the rise, intraday all the way up, the highest climb to 13795, up 3.
37% from before the Spring Festival; From the trend point of view, the surrounding metals are strong and optimistic boosted, Shanghai aluminum is still expected to rise, above the 14000 mark pressure level, but at the same time still pay attention to the weakness of the fundamentals of aluminum itself, after the Spring Festival, domestic inventories continue to increase sharply, and alumina prices fall, aluminum prices may rise space is limited, beware of rushing back down, it is expected that the overall fluctuation range of the Shanghai aluminum index in March is 1.
34-14,000
.
In terms of the external market, this month's Lun aluminum trend formed a "V" line reversal, the beginning of the month once rushed to 1936 US dollars, but lack of substantial positive boost, Lun aluminum gave up gains, all the way down, back to the "18" era, the lowest down to 1846 US dollars, and then by the relaxation of funds, the stock market soared, and with the optimism of Sino-US negotiations, Lun aluminum reversed the rebound, intraday again broke through the 1900 mark, the highest climbed to 1930 US dollars, from the trend point of view, the strong drive of surrounding metals, Lun aluminum shock strong trend is expected to continue, Pay attention to the pressure level around 1950-1980 above; However, its own fundamentals are weak, but also beware of a super high fall, it is expected that the overall fluctuation range of Lun aluminum in March is 1850-1980 range
.
In terms of the market, due to the impact of the Spring Festival factors, the market transaction recovery in February was slow, downstream enterprises around the first ten years of the market successively, with the price increase, the enthusiasm of the holders to ship is higher, the market supply is abundant, coupled with the large number of goods received by Chalco in East China after the holiday, the market transaction has improved
.
In East China, due to the favorable promotion of Sino-US trade negotiations and the firm price support of cargo holders in February, the aluminum price trend got rid of the volatile market in January, and there was a wave of rising market, but due to weak fundamentals and seasonal inventory impact, the upside was relatively limited, and spot aluminum in East China rose to 13640 yuan / ton
.
As of the end of February, spot aluminum in East China was 13580-13620 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton
from the end of January.
South China, South China aluminum ingots in February also continued to move up, the trend is better than in January, especially in the second half of the year, the increase accelerated, as of the end of the month, aluminum ingot ticket price between 13850-13950 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton
from the end of January.
In terms of market transactions, during the Spring Festival, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the South China Sea accumulated significantly, and the market circulation was abundant, in addition to the drive of Chinalco's receiving goods, the recovery of downstream enterprises in South China was relatively slow compared to East China, and overall, the South China market transaction in February was not as good as that in
East China.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
LME aluminum stocks continued to maintain a downward trend this month, and as of February 28, Lun's aluminum stocks reached 1.
2197 million tons, down 68,000 tons, or 5.
26%,
from the end of January last year.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the market arrival gradually increased, this month Shanghai exchange aluminum inventory showed an upward trend, as of February 22, Shanghai exchange aluminum inventory has reached 736,700 tons, an increase of 47,900 from the end of January, an increase of 6.
9%.
Domestic social stocks, as of February 28, Shanghai area 310,000 tons, Wuxi area 644,000 tons, Hangzhou area 150,000 tons, Gongyi area 167,000 tons, South China Sea area 352,000 tons, consumption area aluminum ingot inventory total 1.
623 million tons
.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketFebruary scrap aluminum price compared with January has been raised, South China more up around 100 yuan, as of the end of the month, the mainstream price of machine aluminum around 10250, other areas of the increase is not suitable, aluminum wire and aluminum alloy doors and windows material rise is more obvious, the current East China aluminum alloy doors and windows mainstream receipt price around 10100-10200, aluminum wire around 11450, water outlet 9 fold aluminum chips mainstream around 9600-9700.
After the Lantern Festival, the market resumed normal trading, and due to the scarcity of goods in the market after the holiday, the starting merchants were more active in stocking, the source of goods was favored, and the price was firm; With the price increase, the shipment sentiment of the holders has increased, the market supply is acceptable, the stocked merchants choose to reduce the price, and the market transaction is acceptable
.
In addition, it is understood that due to strict environmental protection inspections in Hebei, some businesses are in a state of closure, which drags down some transactions
.
At present, the fundamentals and high inventory of electrolytic aluminum do not support the continuous rebound of aluminum prices, and the rise still needs positive guidance on the news
.
It is expected that the price of scrap aluminum in March will not have an outstanding performance, and merchants will fast forward and fast out operations
.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
After the Spring Festival, domestic inventories continued to increase, and aluminum price fundamentals were weak and lacked favorable support
.
The trend of the Shanghai aluminum index this month was slightly single, and the overall trend showed a volatile rise, the highest climbing to 13795, up 3.
37% from before the Spring Festival; From the trend point of view, the surrounding metals are strong and optimistic boosted, Shanghai aluminum is still expected to rise, above the temporary attention to the 14000 mark pressure level, but at the same time still pay attention to the weakness of the fundamentals of aluminum itself, after the Spring Festival, domestic inventories continue to increase sharply, and alumina prices fall, aluminum prices may rise space is limited, beware of rushing back down
.
