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Emergencies make transportation restricted and high cost of agricultural demand weakened
Emergencies make transportation restricted and high cost of agricultural demand weakenedIn July, the domestic market price of ammonium sulfate hit a record high for many years, and the high-end price even exceeded 1,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 118% from the beginning of the year
.
Then into August, the market began to fall from a high level
"The peak and fall of the market is closely related to the sudden rebound of the epidemic after the floods in some provinces and cities in China, which caused traffic jams.
In addition, the combined factors such as the slowdown of the centralized export sources and the weakening of agricultural demand under high costs have triggered ammonium sulfate.
The market has fallen from a high level
.
" Said Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator
Traffic is blocked in emergencies
Sudden incident traffic obstructed Sudden incident traffic obstructedOn July 20, a once-in-a-century rainstorm hit Henan Province, which ranks second in the country in terms of total fertilizer production capacity and output
.
The province's Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Hebi, Puyang and other places were severely affected.
According to statistics from the Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the comprehensive operating rate of the urea plant of the fertilizer enterprise in the province has dropped to below 55% in August, which is significantly lower than the national average operating rate
.
"The recent floods coupled with the epidemic factors have significantly hindered freight transportation.
Export slows down corporate price adjustments
Price adjustment by export slowdown companiesPrice adjustment by export slowdown companiesAccording to customs statistics, China's total export of ammonium sulfate in June was about 698,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.
5%
.
"The export volume in June accounted for 179% of the domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate production, which played a certain role in promoting the market's new high in July
However, in the first half of July, orders that have not been executed in June were basically concentrated; in the second half of the month, it was the tail-end phase, and port demand began to decline
.
Affected by this, manufacturers have successively adjusted their sales strategies, shifted their sources of goods to the domestic downstream, and implemented price-cutting promotion methods.
Decreased demand under high cost
Decreased demand under high cost weakened demand under high cost Liu Changqing, an agricultural material distributor in Shangqiu, Henan Province, analyzed that from the perspective of demand, fertilizer companies are currently operating at a low rate due to the high level of raw materials, and the terminal is cautious in receiving goods when the price of fertilizer continues to rise.
The demand for ammonium is relatively weak
.
In addition, from the perspective of the urea market, the demand in autumn has decreased significantly compared with that in spring, and the current urea price has risen to a high level.
Ammonium Sulfate Quotes
.
“Ammonium sulphate may gradually return to rationality after running at a high level in the later period
.
At present, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger, and agricultural material distributors expect the state to introduce relevant policies for high fertilizer prices, so the current intention to store fertilizer is not high
There are also industry insiders who are cautiously optimistic about the correction of ammonium sulfate
.
Although the rise and fall of ammonium sulfate is inevitable by market rules, the impact of floods and emergencies cannot be ignored.
In addition, the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies in August has shown a substantial increase, from 17% in July to the current 39%, and the demand for ammonium sulfate is still growing
.
Therefore, ammonium sulfate still has basic support in the market outlook, and narrow-range consolidation may become the mainstream trend in the near future
.
It is recommended to focus on the current epidemic prevention and control situation and the start-up load of fertilizer companies, and at the same time pay attention to whether the state has introduced new support policies for agricultural materials companies after the disaster
.
