Experts say the next price adjustment will fall, but in the second half of the year it may rush to $130

International oil prices have recently entered a period of volatility, with frequent
ups and downs.
Investors are weighing the possibility of a slowdown in the U.
S.
economy due to a Fed rate hike and signs of
tightening energy markets.
According to market news, due to pressure from the White House to reduce fuel prices, seven oil companies will meet
with Biden on the 23rd.
Is there any possibility that oil prices will continue to fall? What are the knock-on effects of high oil prices?

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association of Sina Finance Weibo Lianmai, Gao Xinwei, Professor of the School of Economics and Management of China University of Petroleum (East China), and Wang Yanting, Senior Analyst of Jinlianchuang Energy, discussed the chain reaction caused by the high volatility of oil prices and the market trend
in the second half of the year.

Will oil prices fall in the next price adjustment window?

Fears of a slowdown were gradually dissipated last week as concentrated interest rate hikes by central banks in the world's major economies dissipated, and crude oil markets continued to assess the supply and demand environment
.
There is a general consensus that the crude oil market will be in short supply for a long time
.
According to sources, US President Joe Biden will call for a gasoline tax holiday
as gas prices continue to rise at gas stations.
But the attitude of American oil companies has diverged
from Biden's policy.

Sanctions against Russia, coupled with the changeable weather in summer, the release of crude oil demand, and a variety of factors, oil prices have entered a volatile process
.

According to the "ten working days" principle, the current round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products is 24 o'clock
on June 28.
What will be the situation with this price adjustment?

Wang Yanting, senior analyst of Jinlianchuang Energy, believes that in the short term, the rate of change of crude oil fluctuates negatively, and the current forecast of crude oil maintains a volatile trend, and the rate of change may be further negatively stretched
.

"This round of oil price reduction is more likely
.
During the price adjustment window on June 28, the probability will be slightly reduced by less than 200 yuan / ton, which will be converted into an increase of around 0.
15 yuan, and the cost of oil will be slightly reduced
.
”

What will happen to the retail price of gasoline at gas stations after the June 28 price adjustment? Will the hotly discussed oil price "break ten" really appear?

"After this round of price adjustment, 92# gasoline will be around
9.
2 yuan / liter.
" Wang Yanting said that the current retail price of 92# gasoline is about 9.
3 yuan / liter, 95# gasoline is close to 10 yuan / liter, 98# gasoline has exceeded 10 yuan / liter, but the largest proportion of consumption is 92# gasoline
.

She also said that the recent private gas station preferential range is large, with the further decline in wholesale prices, terminal links preferential treatment does not rule out continued to increase, the actual sales price of gas stations will digest the current round of retail price reduction in advance
.
Therefore, after the price adjustment on June 28, the impact on the cost of terminal oil will not be obvious
.

Regarding whether this round of fluctuations in oil prices will continue, Wang Yanting, a senior analyst at Jinlianchuang Energy, believes that it will not last long
.
"Under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the supply and demand pattern of the entire crude oil market is still tightening
.
In this context, crude oil prices fluctuated back down, which is a bottom-building process
.
After the bottom is completed, the probability is still to return to the uptrend
.
”

The current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism stipulates that when the international crude oil rises to 130 US dollars / barrel, the "ceiling price" will be opened, and the domestic retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted or adjusted less
.
If the international oil price reaches 130 US dollars / barrel, what level will the retail price of domestic refined oil be at what level?

Wang Yanting said, "According to the current crude oil benchmark price, the crude oil price rises to 130 US dollars / barrel, and the corresponding adjustment range of the retail price of refined oil will be around
1,000 yuan / ton.
" However, when the price of crude oil exceeds $80 per barrel, the relevant departments will reduce the refinery refining profit when calculating the retail price adjustment, and this reduction will be flexibly adjusted to balance the profits
of multiple parties.
Considering comprehensively, it is expected that the oil price will rise by 500-600 yuan / ton at that time, which translates to a price increase of around
0.
5 yuan / liter.
From this point of view, even if the international oil price rises to 130 US dollars / barrel, the domestic 92# probability will not exceed 10 yuan / liter, and will fluctuate
within 10 yuan / liter.
”

In order to win customers, many gas stations have increased their promotional efforts
.
Wang Yanting introduced that at present, taking private gas stations in Shandong as an example, the 92# discount range can reach 1.
5 yuan / liter
.
At present, the zero price difference of gasoline and diesel batches has reached a relatively high level in history, measured by the wholesale price of main gasoline and diesel, the zero price difference of gasoline batches can exceed 2000 yuan / ton, and the zero price difference of diesel batches is more than 1000 yuan / ton, which is relatively
profitable.

She believes that it is also because of the support of high profits that the gas station link will have greater preferential promotion space
.
"In the later stage, with the increase of market competition pressure, it is not ruled out that the main gas stations will join the promotion ranks, and the overall promotion range will show a widening trend
.
"

The next target for international oil prices is $150?

"International oil prices will definitely rise to $150," Gao Xinwei, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China University of Petroleum (East China), said positively about the future trend of oil prices
.

He said that because there are at least four or five external rising factors, the falling factors are not particularly certain, and the rising factors are very certain, so the oil price is still likely to go up
.

Some netizens asked what is the logic of oil prices climbing the $150 mark, Gao Xinwei said that the first is that the remaining production capacity of the major oil producers, such as OPEC, is not very much, Russia is sanctioning, the United States has basically reached the upper limit, and the possibility of significantly increasing production from the supply side is not available in one or two years
.

"It takes four or five years to explore, and it takes almost a year to find oil and then produce oil, and now the global investment in oil exploration is falling sharply in the short term, which used to be more than 30 billion US dollars, and now it has fallen to more than 10 billion US dollars, and it is still falling
.
" Gao Xinwei said that not all of these investments are used in oil, and about one-third are used in other areas of new energy, so investment in oil may be even less
.

He also said that in the past, OPEC balanced oil prices mainly for fear of kicking itself out of the market, but now there is no such worry
.
"If you don't worry, you have to kick out, the impact of global carbon emission reduction, he has broken the jar, and he doesn't want to control it
anymore.
"

Gao Xinwei said that if the economy shrinks, it will lead to a sharp decline in oil demand, but after several years of the epidemic, the world has slowly adapted
.
"And even if the conflict in Ukraine ends, oil prices will not fall sharply, Russian oil is sold more to Asia, in fact, the loss is not very large, and the total supply in the world has not fallen
significantly.
" In the future, after the lifting of sanctions, the total number will remain about the same and will not fall
significantly.
”

What will happen to oil prices in the second half of 2022?

Wang Yanting, senior analyst of Jinlianchuang Energy, believes that from a geopolitical point of view, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not optimistic, and the tight energy supply situation still exists, which is one of
the factors supporting oil prices.
"In the second half of 2022, like the United States will usher in the midterm elections, it is not ruled out that more measures will be taken to suppress oil prices
.
The third quarter will be the peak season for crude oil demand, and the fourth quarter will enter the demand off-season, but overall, WTI is expected to break through $120 / barrel, but it does not rule out bearish factors, it is predicted at $100-120 / barrel, and Brent will be at $100-125 / barrel
.
In the second half of the year, oil prices may rush to 130 yuan / barrel in the short term due to emergencies, but the probability of sustainability is not large
.
”

Some netizens asked whether high oil prices will continue to appear in the next three or five years, and Gao Xinwei, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China University of Petroleum (East China), believes that this will indeed be the case, "It
is unrealistic to hope that oil prices will return to five or six yuan in the short term.
" ”

He said that the trend of oil prices in 2008 was because there was a financial crisis at that time, oil prices were inflated by financial bubbles, and they relied on financial bubbles to fight down, there was only one aspect of the influencing factor, and the current situation is that oil prices are caused by the comprehensive impact of three factors, and it is impossible
to quickly hit back in three aspects.

"According to the law of 7 increases and 5 declines in oil prices in the past, we conclude that the background of each price fluctuation is different, the reasons are also different, and it is unrealistic for oil prices to fall back to their original position in the short term, like in 2008, from 140 to 30 or 40 in half a year, do not make such plans
in the short term.
" Gao Xinwei said
.

Electrification is faster than expected, but it is not possible to use electric vehicles in all cars

High oil prices have brought benefits to the new energy vehicle market
.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said that at present, the world's new energy development is still in an unbalanced state, and China's new energy development trend is particularly good, especially passenger new energy vehicles, which currently show a good trend
that exceeds the expectations of all aspects.

"The year-on-year growth of new energy vehicles is still at the level of more than 100%, reaching 420,000 units in May and 1.
89 million units in January-May, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and the penetration rate in the car market has reached 26%," he said, and it is generally believed that this situation still does not meet expectations, because due to the impact of the epidemic, new energy vehicles have not yet reached the level of production capacity or demand, so now, production and sales are extremely strong
.

Cui Dongshu also said that from the perspective of European car companies such as Volkswagen and BMW, the goal of carbon neutrality is extremely clear, and fossil energy is no longer available in the research and development direction of European car companies
.

"Driving an electric car for 1 kilometer is about 6 cents, driving a fuel car is 6 cents, if you take a fuel bus, it will cost 2-3 cents / km, and now the super money-saving is the electric car
.
" He said that the domestic tax system and oil price structure cannot be changed at present, and it is impossible for oil to be exempted from consumption tax and fuel surcharge, and it is impossible to reduce oil prices relatively low, so the price of oil is incomparable with the price of
electricity.
"So from the current price system and environmental protection dual concept, the government welcomes, the people (43.
100, -0.
88, -2.
00%) are happy, and the development of electric vehicles is showing a super hot good situation
.
"

Cui Dongshu especially said that the electrification of heavy-duty truck products is now extremely fast
.
"Heavy trucks used to burn diesel, and now many heavy trucks have become power exchangers, reducing the use time of oil, and the use of electricity is completely economical in China, showing a trend of ultra-high-speed development
.
"

He believes that electric vehicles have made great breakthroughs in the field of taxis and heavy trucks, and private cars have also made certain breakthroughs, and the development of electric vehicles has entered an unstoppable high-speed era
.
"Electric vehicles have achieved super growth in the field of taxis, ride-hailing, high-frequency vehicles, and heavy-duty trucks, especially in the field of venue vehicles, so plug-in hybrid as a transitional model, the development speed of pure electric products is extremely fast, overall, the development speed of electrification exceeds expectations
.
"

"Originally, we expected to reach a penetration rate of 25% in 2025, and according to the statistics of the Passenger Association last month, it has reached a penetration rate
of 26%.
" Cui Dongshu said that China will reach a penetration rate of more than 50% in 2030, and the trend of electrification is unstoppable, and the key is the ultra-low
cost of use.

But he also admits that it is impossible for all cars to be electric
.
"The reason is that the fuel vehicle itself has its own heat source, like the northern region needs warm air to drive in winter, especially in the northeast at minus 40 degrees, if the electric vehicle is not charged, it is actually very cold, fuel vehicles have this advantage, why not use it?"

In addition, Cui Dongshu also said that the current electric vehicle technology is not mature enough, in the case of high-speed fuel vehicles fuel saving performance is very good, but in high-speed cases, electric vehicles power consumption effect is very serious, so in the high-speed situation, fuel vehicles have certain advantages
.

"Another point is industrial security, if there is a future war, it is impossible to get hydrogen energy, it is impossible to use electric vehicles to fight, electric tanks are still unrealistic, tanks still have to burn diesel, troop carriers still need to use fuel heavy trucks or these products, because its safety and mobility in all aspects are relatively strong
.
" He said
.

Cui Dongshu believes that from the perspective of automobiles, electrification is a trend, and from the perspective of industrial safety, the balance of diversified energy systems is a trend
of development.