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Since mid-June, the ethylene glycol market finally got rid of the decline in the first half of the year and entered a rebound cycle
.
On September 11, the average price of ethylene glycol jumped to the 4,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) line and maintained so far, reaching the highest point since March
Industry insiders believe that the ethylene glycol market fluctuated strongly in September, and as new capacity is put into production in the later period, the industry inventory may return to the state of accumulation, and the rebounding market may change the situation
.
Admission of new capacity groups
Admission of new capacity groups"This year is the year when ethylene glycol is put into production, especially from September to October.
A large number of new production capacity will be concentrated on the market, forming greater supply pressure
.
" The ethylene glycol market after the holiday has a certain impact
According to Zhang Qiang, China's ethylene glycol market is highly dependent on imports.
In 2019, the import dependence rate reached 55%
.
To reverse this situation, both large-scale refining and chemical companies and coal chemical companies are actively promoting projects
"Because the winter is relatively unfavorable for the trial run of coal-to-ethylene glycol, the ethylene glycol plants in the north are currently being actively commissioned, and the coal-to-ethylene glycol will usher in the peak of production
.
400,000 tons/year, Sinochem Quanzhou 400,000 tons/year, Yongcheng Phase II 200,000 tons/year, Shaanxi Weihe 300,000 tons/year are scheduled to be commissioned before October; Hubei Sanning 300,000 tons/year, The 300,000 tons/year unit of Jianyuan Coal Coking is
High inventory will become the norm
High inventory will become the normNot only will the newly increased production capacity be launched intensively, but some of the pre-maintenance overhaul devices will also resume production one after another
.
"In mid-to-late September, Inner Mongolia Xinhang Energy's 120,000-ton/year and Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's 300,000-ton/year installations will be restarted.
At present, ethylene glycol port stocks are already at a high level
.
As of September 7, the domestic ethylene glycol port inventory reached about 1.
According to Du Liang, a senior analyst at Longzhong Information, due to the impact of the U.
S.
hurricane weather, the shutdown time of the two U.
S.
ethylene glycol plants with a capacity of 280,000 tons/year and 340,000 tons/year respectively has been extended, and the restart time is to be determined; The 700,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant shuts down unexpectedly; Dow's 350,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Canada is undergoing planned maintenance
.
"Although imports will shrink from September to October, due to the restart of domestic ethylene glycol plants and the centralized release of new production capacity, the extent of destocking in the main port of East China is relatively limited, and the high inventory of the main port will be normalized
.
" Du Liang said
Low demand is hard to reverse
Low demand is hard to reverse "In September, the market seems to have released a signal that the market will turn better, and the operating rate of the downstream industry of ethylene glycol has also been continuously adjusted.
However, behind the apparent prosperity, there are still uncertainties for the overall improvement
.
" China Silkdu.
Niu Xiaoye introduced that at the time point of the traditional "Golden Nine", weaving manufacturers began to gradually resume production and increase production capacity.
Manufacturers that had holidays and shifts also began to slowly return to normal production, and some grey fabrics and fabrics were in good condition
.
According to the sample companies tested by China Silkdu.
com, the current operating rate of looms in Shengze has risen to around 70%, and the market seems to be showing a warmer market
.
"But while stepping up production, we must also consider the negative factors of all parties
.
" Niu Xiaoye reminded that the overall inventory of the polyester market is currently concentrated in 34 to 44 days
.
Among them, POY inventory is 12 to 18 days, FDY inventory is 23 to 35 days, and DTY inventory is 31 to 44 days, all of which are high
.
In addition, the international epidemic prevention and control situation is still unclear.
The GDP of countries around the world has declined, and some countries have suffered a secondary impact from the epidemic
.
In the textile market, "three points depend on domestic trade and seven points on foreign trade".
Under the situation of the epidemic and economic downturn, the purchase of textiles by foreign customers is naturally not as good as in previous years
.
On the whole, although the overall operating rate of the downstream weaving industry has increased compared with the previous period, it is still at a low level compared with the same period in previous years
.
In the current situation of high inventory and unclear operating rate, it is expected that the polyester market in the fourth quarter is still unspeakably optimistic, and the support for upstream ethylene glycol demand is not yet solid
.
