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According to statistics, LME metals generally fell during the long holiday, of which aluminum - 4%.
Affected by the epidemic, domestic aluminum processing enterprises have generally delayed the start of work, and the demand side of the aluminum market has been hit
hard.
The production characteristics of the refinery determine that its production capacity remains stable during the Spring Festival, and the pace of new refinery capacity start-up in November and December last year will accelerate, and the accumulation speed will accelerate in the first quarter, and it is estimated that by March, the domestic social inventory may increase by 400,000 tons to 900,000 tons, which is comparable
to the average accumulation volume in the past few years.
In terms of downstream consumption, similar to copper, consumption of real estate completed area, infrastructure, automobiles and major appliances will maintain a recovery momentum, but the average monthly export volume of aluminum is 400,000-500,000 tons, and the delay in export orders and slowdown in logistics will have a greater
impact.
In addition, although the electrolytic aluminum plant has a high smelting profit, when the aluminum price falls below 13,800 yuan, the North China alumina plant will face a comprehensive loss, and the cost support begins to be reflected
.
Metal inventories increased
.
At present, LME aluminum stocks are 1.
288 million tons, and the overall LME aluminum stocks have recently rebounded
.
Domestic aluminum social stocks have recently remained at 600,000 tons, which is at a low level
.
Affected by the slowdown in corporate production capacity, metal inventories may increase
.
On the one hand, the epidemic has led to the postponement of the resumption of work downstream, the extension of the accumulation period after the holiday, and the postponement of the arrival of the peak season; On the other hand, macroeconomic concerns have led to lower
pricing of non-ferrous metals.
In the first quarter, the operating range of non-ferrous metals moved downward, if the epidemic can be controlled quickly, there is little room for further decline in metal prices, and prices may gradually stabilize and brew a
recovery.
If the control effect is not obvious, the strict personnel control will be forced to prolong, which will hit the recovery of downstream production and confidence in the macroeconomy, forming a new decline
.
Whether the epidemic can be controlled depends on the next two or three weeks, and the end of
February.
