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The U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global consumption of liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to reach record highs in 2024
.
According to the EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook, global average consumption of liquid fuels will exceed 100 million b/d in 2023 for the first time since 2019 and more than 102 million b/d
in 2024.
Crude oil prices are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024, even as consumption increases, largely because crude oil production in the U.
S.
and overseas will continue to grow
over the next two years.
The EIA forecasts that the average price of European benchmark Brent crude oil will be below $80 per barrel in 2024, down more than
20% from 2022.
Joe DeCarolis, Administrator of the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration, said: "Our forecasts for global oil consumption depend on uncertain economic conditions, and economic changes can have a significant impact
on global petroleum product consumption.
”
Other key elements of EIA's forecast include:
U.
S.
gasoline prices are largely tied to crude oil, and EIA expects gasoline prices to fall
significantly compared to 2022.
The agency predicts that the average price of gasoline in the United States will be about $3.
30 per gallon in 2023 and $3.
10 per gallon in 2024
.
EIA expects average U.
S.
natural gas prices to decline
through 2023 and 2024 as domestic production continues to grow.
The agency also expects further growth in U.
S.
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as global demand remains strong and more U.
S.
LNG export facilities come online
.
The EIA expects the share of U.
S.
coal power generation to decline from 20 percent in 2022 to 18 percent in 2023 and then to 17 percent
in 2024.
In the United States, the share of renewables as a source of electricity generation continues to increase, reaching 26%
of total electricity generation by 2024.
About two-thirds of the projected growth in renewable energy generation will come from new utility-scale solar PV capacity, with most of the rest coming from new wind projects
.
