EIA inventories plummeted, and oil prices soared and retreated

Recently, international oil prices have fallen significantly, and the performance of domestic crude oil prices is strong, showing a range oscillation trend
as a whole.

U.
S.
commercial crude inventories fell by 7.
056 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ended Aug.
12, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels and an increase of 5.
457 million barrels in the previous month, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory fell by 3.
402 million barrels compared with a decrease of 5.
297 million barrels
in the previous month, data released by the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
After the release of EIA data, international oil prices soared and retreated
.
By the close of the day, the WTI crude oil futures September contract rose $1.
58/barrel, or 1.
83%, to close at $88.
11/barrel; Brent crude futures October contract rose $1.
31/b, or 1.
42%,
to settle at $93.
65.

"China's crude oil imports fell sharply in July-August, and nearshore crude inventories were at historic lows as refiners reduced inventories and domestic fuel demand recovered more slowly than expected
.
In early August, Saudi Aramco took the initiative to raise the quotation of light crude oil sold to the Asian region to a record level, objectively causing the tight supply of oil in the Far East, and the trend of domestic crude oil was stronger
than that of the external market.
Huaan Futures analyst Enron said
.

In the international market, yesterday, the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil futures narrowed intraday to $5.
83 / barrel, the smallest
since July 14.

It is understood that the Brent and WTI spread, also known as the transatlantic spread, reflects the crude oil trade flow between Europe and North America, because the freight rate is relatively stable, the ultra-high price difference will cause the Gulf of Mexico crude oil to Europe to open
the profit window.

With Europe's sharp rise in U.
S.
crude oil imports, the Brent-WTI spread has narrowed recently
.

"The previous widening of the price spread was mainly due to the greater impact of US storage dumping on the supply side, while the non-US countries in the IEA dumped reserves were smaller than those in the United States, and the negative feedback of US gasoline demand on the demand side was obvious, which has affected the operating rate
of US refineries.
" Zhang Zhengze, an analyst at Guohai Liangshi Futures, said that the recent price spread has narrowed, from the perspective of the US market, the supply and demand pressure has improved month-on-month, and the supply-side US storage dumping will end in October, and the supply pressure has been reduced
.
On the demand side, the poor performance of gasoline in the peak season is partly affected by the epidemic, and the recent number of new cases in the United States has ushered in an inflection point, and some of the demand previously affected by the epidemic has also been released, and the apparent demand for gasoline, which is still at the end of the peak season, has recovered
.

"The current trading logic of the crude oil market is a trade-off between the risk premium brought by Russia's possible reduction of energy supply and the slowdown in global economic growth, and the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations has also interfered
with oil prices.
" Gu Shuangfei, deputy manager of South China Futures consulting service department, said
.

At present, the disturbance factors on the supply side of the international oil market are still many, the idle production capacity of major oil-producing countries is still limited, and shale oil production is also weak, but Europe's energy replenishment plan for autumn and winter is progressing smoothly, and sanctions against Russian oil are progressing smoothly
.
At the same time, Russian crude oil exports fell sharply to their lowest level since March, indicating that demand is the core factor
in the current pressure on oil prices.

"At present, the global economy is gradually entering recession, and central banks are forced to sharply tighten monetary policy to fight inflation, from the high level of refined oil cracking spreads to the accumulation of EIA inventories, and then to the sharp narrowing of the monthly difference in recent months, all of which reflect the restraining effect
of the economic downturn on oil market demand.
" Enron said
.

Zhang Zhengze believes that in the medium and long term, the logic that dominates the core trend of the crude oil market lies in when the demand for diesel representing industrial demand in the demand side weakens.

"It can be observed and tracked
by whether the diesel cracking spread and the unilateral price of crude oil are trending down, and whether the trend of diesel ultra-seasonal inventory increases.
"

In Gu Shuangfei's view, the core of the long-term trend of oil prices is the issue of pricing power, and the core behind it is whether the increase in US shale oil exceeds the growth
of global crude oil demand.
"From the current market environment, U.
S.
shale oil production is growing, but its sustainability is still in doubt
.
Market pricing power remains in OPEC's hands, and global spare capacity remains insufficient, which is the core factor
supporting oil prices.
Due to OPEC's recent intention to adjust the direction of crude oil trade, the global crude oil supply and demand have rebalanced from imbalance, which has also contributed to this round of oil price decline
.
"At present, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are constantly advancing, and if an agreement is reached, it will also push oil prices down
further.
"