Economic outlook still faces risks Shanghai Aluminum expects short-term pullback shocks

Market focus: (1) The new crown epidemic in the United States has accelerated to deteriorate, with a cumulative total of more than 11.
36 million confirmed cases, and the number of new daily cases is still expanding
.
(2) On November 15, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed
.
The member countries include the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, with a total population of 2.
27 billion, a GDP of 26 trillion US dollars, and a total export volume of 5.
2 trillion US dollars, all accounting for about 30% of
the global total.

Spot analysis: On November 16, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15650-15690 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15670 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the quotations of cargo holders were firm, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods declined, and the downstream part of the procurement, the transaction was slightly weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 126661 tons, an increase of 2252 tons per day; On November 13, LME aluminum stocks were 1414675 tons, a daily decrease of 5,425 tons
.
As of the week ended November 13, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 232577 tons, a weekly increase of 861 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract were 83601 lots, minus 1503 lots per day, short positions were 103100 lots, a daily increase of 614 lots, net short positions were 19499 lots, daily minus 2117 lots, more short positions increased, net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On November 16, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2012 fell slightly
.
The US dollar index is under pressure due to the ongoing epidemic in the United States and the difficult birth of the fiscal stimulus plan, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may take measures in advance; Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot inventory continued to deteriorate, now close to the low level at the beginning of the year, the tight supply of goods makes the market price willingness is higher, aluminum price performance is relatively strong
.
However, the global pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, and the economic outlook remains risky; Coupled with the continued weakening of alumina prices, the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, which will pose a resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, and the bulls reduced their positions at the high, and it is expected that the short-term pullback will fluctuate
.