Driven by multiple factors, PTA will maintain strong oscillations in the market outlook

On the one hand, the recent upward shift in the focus of crude oil prices has driven the prices of chemical products to rise simultaneously; on the other hand, there are still too many overhaul devices from July to August, and PTA is facing a destocking pattern
.

Driven by multiple factors, PTA will maintain a strong oscillation in the market outlook

Recently, the center of gravity of crude oil prices has steadily moved up, making the PTA cost-end support stronger
.

At the same time, there will be more equipment overhauls from July to August, which will keep the market destocking

Supply and demand mismatch boost

Recently, as the effects of vaccination in European and American countries have gradually emerged, the global economy has shown a steady recovery
.

At the same time, summer is the peak season for travel in the northern hemisphere, and demand for oil has ushered in rapid growth, the operating rate of refineries has gradually recovered, and the demand for crude oil has accelerated

In terms of PX, since the end of May, domestic equipment has been overhauled or reduced, including Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million tons of PX equipment, Fujian Refining and Chemical’s 850,000 tons of PX equipment, Fuhua Group’s 1.

6 million tons of PX equipment, and Sinochem Quanzhou’s 800,000-ton PX installations all dropped to varying degrees.
At the end of June, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s first-phase installations were shut down for maintenance, and the second-phase new installations were delayed.
This resulted in a rapid decline in PX supply-side output in the short term.
PX is expected to maintain in the near future.

More equipment overhaul

After the spring, due to the continued sluggish profit of PTA processing, major companies have chosen to overhaul, and the supply of PTA has dropped significantly
.

At the same time, the downstream polyester continued to operate at a high level, and PTA began to enter the destocking channel since March

From the current point of view, there are still many devices scheduled to be overhauled by PTA from July to August.

The relatively determined overhaul unit in July is the 1.
2 million tons of PTA unit of Taihua Xingye, while Honggang Petrochemical 150, which was originally scheduled to be overhauled in June The 10,000-ton PTA device, the 2.
5-million-ton PTA device of Hengli Petrochemical Line 5 and the 2.

Dual factor drive

From the perspective of downstream polyester, although the recent terminal demand has not improved, the enthusiasm of the weaving factories to purchase raw materials is still not high, and the production and sales of polyester are difficult to continue to increase.

Fortunately, some weaving regions have optimistic expectations for the market outlook.
This enables polyester factories to reduce their own inventories through price-cutting promotions, thereby reducing pressure on inventory and cash flow

To sum up, the recent upward shift in crude oil prices has driven the prices of chemical products to rise simultaneously, and PX, as a downstream chemical product, has been superimposed on its own supply and demand mismatch under the background of rising oil prices at the cost end, and prices will undoubtedly be very strong
.

In addition, due to the fact that there are still too many PTA maintenance devices from July to August, even if the new devices are put into production on schedule, PTA will still face a destocking pattern

Transfer from: Chemical Network