Downstream resumption of work is expected to rise The center of gravity of copper prices is expected to continue to zigzag and recover

On Monday night, most of the external industrial futures closed higher, with London copper futures at $5822 / ton, up 1.
14%, and London aluminum futures at $1717 / ton, down 0.
17%.

Recently, the financial market has focused on the monetary and fiscal stimulus policy trends of various countries, while the uncertainty of the spread of the global novel pneumonia epidemic still affects the market risk appetite, and this week, driven by a number of policies in China, the market risk appetite has rebounded at a low level, and the downward space of the internal disk is limited, and the Shanghai copper trend is mainly held
.

Fundamentally, the epidemic control has put pressure on the supply of upstream raw materials and the sales of sulfuric acid by-product, smelters have started production reduction plans in February, and the story on the supply side strengthens the support of copper prices of $5,500
.
In the short term, the epidemic also hindered the return of downstream consumption, and refined copper stocks rebounded significantly
.
At the micro level, copper rod production capacity has begun to partially recover, and some areas have begun to receive orders as usual; Copper strip enterprises have resumed work one after another, the pace of production is slow, and orders are obviously insufficient; The resumption of work of copper pipe enterprises was not ideal, and the operating rate fell sharply in January
.
The production of copper rod enterprises is limited, and the financial pressure is large
.

In general, short-term epidemic control is still in the battle, and the road to copper price rebound is tortuous, but after the inflection point of the epidemic, the copper rebound height is expected to be in the forefront of non-ferrous metals, on the one hand, the emotional release, on the other hand, the story of tight copper supply is still true
.
It is expected that Shanghai copper is 45000-46500 yuan / ton
.
Operationally, the range is mainly long on dips, or hedging
of buying copper and throwing lead or buying copper and throwing zinc.

Overall, the "wave of rework" after the 15th of the first month has brought a greater test to the epidemic prevention and control, with the return of personnel, the expectation of downstream resumption of work is rising, and the center of gravity of copper prices is expected to continue to zigzag and rise
.