Downstream replenishment is generally LLDPE main contract low opening volatility

News: 1.
In the past year, the main products of thermal resin produced by Maoming Petrochemical Ethylene, polyethylene and polypropylene, have been booming in production and sales, and there has been high inventory pressure, and railway transportation production has actively done a good job in the transportation of chemical products
.
In the first 8 months, the railway factory of organized ethylene products was 168,500 tons, 26,600 tons more than the same period last year, an increase of 18.
78%
year-on-year.

2.
Longzhong Information reported on September 25 that Shenhua Xinjiang PE plant production capacity is 270,000 tons / year, stopped on August 15, the current device is in operation, and it is expected to produce qualified products
around the 28th.

Upstream raw materials market: The price of naphtha in the Japanese market fell back to $519.
5/ton, -11.
50
.
The ethylene Asian market is quoted at $880/mt, -20, in Northeast Asia, and $810/mt, -20
, in Southeast Asia.

Spot market: LLDPE spot market prices were generally lowered
during the day.
North China down 50-100 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7580 yuan / ton, -70; East China is down 50 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7800 yuan / ton, 0; South China is down 100-200 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7800 yuan / ton, -200
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2524 lots, +46 lots within the day; In the historical median zone
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 232272 lots, +5203 lots, short positions are 241040 lots, +1727 lots, and the net position is -8768 lots, with a decrease
in net shorting.

Summary: Naphtha prices have fallen, ethylene prices in Asia have also declined, and cost support has weakened
.
Port inventories continued to decline this week, and the rate of inventory depletion was acceptable
.
Downstream agricultural film orders have accumulated, and the start of construction has increased, and with the National Day holiday approaching, merchants' enthusiasm for stocking has improved; However, affected by the holiday in the later stage, raw material inventory accumulated, merchants replenished or decreased, and demand remained to be seen
.
The spot market is not smooth, the transaction is general, and the merchant lowers the unit price
.
Although the futures price rose sharply last week due to the influence of crude oil, at present, the support price continues to
lack upward momentum.
L2001 price opened low and fluctuated, closed in a narrow range at the end of the day, MACD red column contraction, continue to pay attention to the pressure around 7700 above, focus on the support around 7550 below, and the price is expected to maintain a weak finishing
before the holiday.
Operationally, it is recommended to trade
in the range of 7550-7700.