Downstream demand was flat The main LLDPE contract closed in a narrow range

Market situation: downstream demand was flat, L2001 main contract closed in a narrow range, futures price closed at 7390 yuan / ton, -0.
2% from the previous trading day; Volume 391476 lots, -90454 lots; Position 624678 lots, +17106 lots, basis 60 yuan, 1-5 spread 125 yuan
.

News: In January and September, polyethylene production was 1.
4102 million tons, down 22,300 tons from the previous month (1,432,500 tons), an increase of 67,600 tons from the same period last year (1,342,600 tons), of which linear 613,200 tons, down 11,400 tons from the previous month (62.
46); low pressure was 574,700 tons, down 28,800 tons from the previous month (60.
35), and 222,300 tons from the previous month, down 17,900 tons from the previous month (20.
44
).
(Note: Full sample)

2.
Longzhong Information reported on October 9: Ningxia Baofeng's 300,000 tons/year polyethylene plant produces 8008, and plans to convert production to 7042 in the near future, and Baofeng Phase II produces 6081
.

Upstream raw materials market: The price of naphtha in the Japanese market rose to $494.
13/mt, +1.
25
.
Ethylene Asian market Northeast Asia quotation is 795 US dollars / ton, -15; Southeast Asia is 800 US dollars / ton, 0
.

Spot market: The LLDPE spot market weakened and prices generally declined
.
North China down 50-70 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7450 yuan / ton, -50; East China and South China market down 50-100 yuan / ton, East China mainstream price is 7500 yuan / ton, -100; South China mainstream price is 7650 yuan / ton, -100
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2326 lots, +0 lots within the day; In the historical median zone
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 197351 lots, +1699 lots, short positions are 216771 lots, +586 lots, and the net position is -19420 lots, with a decrease
in net shorting.

Summary: Due to the negative impact of the global economic slowdown and the market's pessimistic expectations for crude oil demand, the trend of crude oil prices is weak, and there is limited
support for cost prices.
During the holiday, there were many enterprises that stopped work, and polyethylene inventories accumulated
slightly.
The spot market is also dominated
by profit-taking.
Although downstream agricultural film gradually resumed work after the National Day military parade, it is still mainly
to consume current stocks.
In the short term, fundamentals are bearish and LLDPE price action is expected to remain weak
.
However, with the gradual entry of the agricultural film season, the downstream replenishment demand may rebound, and the current polyethylene price is at a historical low, and the downside is expected to be limited
.
In the medium and long term, prices may recover, and the strength of the rebound mainly depends on the strength of
downstream replenishment.
From a technical point of view, the L2001 contract opened low and fluctuated, closed in a narrow range, the pressure near the 5-day moving average fell upward, the price ran between the hourly Bollinger middle band and the lower band, the upper focus on the pressure around 7500, the lower focus on the support around 7300, it is expected that the price trend will remain weak in the short term, it is recommended that the short order in the hand can be held
cautiously.