Downstream demand recovered relatively quickly, and Shanghai aluminum shocks rose slightly

Market focus: (1) Regarding the Chinese National Congress deliberation of the bill on safeguarding national security in Hong Kong, US President Trump has publicly stated that if China passes Hong Kong legislation, the United States will have a strong response
.
(2) Mysteel data, as of May 22, 83 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country, the total inventory in the plant was 222,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from last week and 170,000 tons from the same period last month, and the reduction rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory slowed down
.

Spot analysis: On May 25, spot A00 aluminum reported 13240-13280 yuan / ton, the average price was 13260 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton
daily.
During the day, a large household carried out the procurement plan normally, the cargo holders were more active, some middlemen needed to pay long orders and normal resale trade needs, the receipt of goods was acceptable, the trading of both sides was more active, and the market transaction atmosphere fell after 11:00, and the number of shippers increased
significantly.
Normal replenishment of downstream days, general willingness to receive goods
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 123522 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 9,390 tons, a drop of 31 consecutive days; On May 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1,458,100 tons, a daily decrease of 4,500 tons
.
As of the week of May 22, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported at 322,060 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,282 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract were 87580 lots, minus 5993 lots per day, short positions were 123859 lots, daily minus 2202 lots, net short positions were 36279 lots, daily increase of 3791 lots, long and short were reduced, net space increased
.

Due to the rapid recovery of domestic downstream demand, the willingness of processing enterprises to purchase raw materials, coupled with the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in the early stage and the slow recovery of current production capacity, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to dematerialize, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, heightened tensions between China and the United States, and rising risk aversion in the market boosted the recovery of the dollar; At the same time, overseas have been greatly affected by the epidemic, coupled with the high ratio of Shanghai, resulting in the suppression of aluminum exports; And the future electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to be released, and the pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase
.
In terms of spot, a large household carried out the procurement plan normally during the day, the cargo holders were more active in shipments, and some middlemen needed to pay long orders and normal resale trade needs, receiving goods was acceptable, and the downstream was replenished normally
.
Technically, the main 2007 contract market of Shanghai aluminum has increased its intertemporal positive set, focusing on the resistance above 13,000, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.