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LME copper recovered from a low on Tuesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was at $5831.
5 / ton, up 0.
22%
on a daily basis.
The main 2001 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated short, with the highest 46980 yuan / ton, the lowest 46790 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 46890 yuan / ton, down 0.
19% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 95720 lots, an increase of 4572 lots per day; The position was 215,000 lots, an increase of 4,294 lots
per day.
The basis was expanded to 65 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai copper from 1912 to 2001 widened to -30 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: US President Donald Trump recently tweeted that he told Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting on Monday morning local time that the interest rate set by the Fed is too high relative to other countries
.
Given the reluctance of Japan's Pacific Copper and other Japanese copper producers to lead the 2020 negotiations on copper concentrate processing and refining fees (TC/RCs), this may give Chinese copper smelters a greater say in annual negotiations
.
Spot analysis: On November 19, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 46910-47000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 46955 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
There are few transactions in the morning market, holders have no choice but to lower their quotations, low-priced sources still attract some traders to buy, and there are downstream parts of the dip replenishment during the day, traders are still targeting low-premium sources
.
Before the delivery of the outflow, the premium water appeared in an embarrassing state of being suppressed, but the market trading activity was acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 58,421 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 6,796 tons; On November 18, LME copper stocks were 221,450 tons, down 3,325 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2001 contract were 66772 lots, an increase of 1740 lots per day, 77021 short positions, a daily increase of 178 lots, a net short position of 10249 lots, a daily decrease of 1562 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On November 19, the main force of Shanghai copper 2001 was short in shock
.
Although the Sino-US trade negotiations are good news, there is still uncertainty about whether a trade agreement can be reached, market optimism has cooled, coupled with the weak performance of downstream demand, so that copper prices have insufficient upward momentum, and the recent UK agreement Brexit possibility is further increased, and Trump once again bombarded the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar, and copper inventories showed a downward trend, and the demand for terminal industries in the fourth quarter is still expected to grow, which supports copper prices strongly
。 In terms of spot, there are few transactions in the morning market, holders have no choice but to lower their quotations, low-priced sources still attract some traders to buy, some downstream parts are replenished on the dip, and traders are still targeting low-premium sources
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper main 2001 contract is long and lower, focusing on the 46700 position support, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2001 contract can be long around 46860 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 46700 yuan / ton
.
