Downstream demand performance is weak, and the main force of Shanghai copper opens high and falls

Market focus: (1) The US core PCE price index rose 0.
1% m/m in October, up 0.
1% expected, and unchanged from the previous month
.
U.
S.
jobless claims last week were 213,000 versus an estimated 221,000
.
(2) China's refined copper imports in October were 316,938.
74 tons, down 2.
71% year-on-year and 1.
11% month-on-month, of which 94,400 tons were imported from Chile, down 11.
26%
year-on-year.
(3) First Quantum and Rio Tinto are discussing the development of the Lagranja copper mining project, which is expected to have an annual output of 500,000 tons and a service life of 40 years, which will take 9 years to complete the development
.

Spot analysis: On November 28, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 47320-47370 yuan / ton, with an average price of 47345 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 15 yuan / ton
.
Intraday plate strong premium high market response is weak, holders are forced to lower the quotation, the end of the month downstream willingness to receive goods is low, the end of the month market trading is difficult to launch, the market is more wait-and-see, spot copper inventory is still relatively low, spot premium is difficult to have room to fall, although traders have the willingness to receive goods, but the price is difficult to reach the willingness to enter the market, supply and demand are more likely to fall into a standoff, the characteristics of the end of the month are obvious
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 58,468 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 225 tons; On November 27, LME copper stocks were 213,200 tonnes, down 1,000 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2001 contract were 68188 lots, an increase of 208 lots per day, 83972 short positions, a daily increase of 770 lots, a net short position of 15784 lots, a daily increase of 562 lots, both long and short, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On November 28, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high and fell
in 2001.
Sino-US trade negotiations are optimistic, the possibility of reaching an agreement between the two sides increases, while China's refined copper imports in October fell month-on-month, copper inventories showed a downward trend, and copper price support increased, but China and the United States have not reached a substantive agreement, dragging down market sentiment, strong US economic data, high dollar operation, and weak downstream demand, copper price upward momentum is limited
.
In terms of spot, the market response of strong premium is weak, the holder is forced to lower the quotation, the downstream willingness to receive goods at the end of the month is low, the market trading at the end of the month is difficult to launch, the market is more wait-and-see, spot copper stocks are still relatively low, spot premium is difficult to have room to decline
.
Technically, the main force of Shanghai copper 2001 contract daily MACD red column increment, pay attention to the pressure above 47600 position, is expected to short-term shock operation
.