Downstream demand performance is better, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum is adjusted at a high level

Market focus: (1) The leaders of both parties in the U.
S.
Congress are scrambling to finalize the bailout bill so that it can be merged with the government spending bill and passed
by the weekend.
(2) In December, the US FOMC benchmark interest rate remained unchanged from 0% to 0.
25%, and the composition and pace of asset purchase operations were not adjusted, and the ultra-loose policy
was maintained.
(3) WBMS reported that the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 1.
709 million tons from January to October 2020, and 479,000 tons in 2019
.

Spot analysis: On December 17, spot A00 aluminum reported 16710-16750 yuan / ton, the average price was 16730 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is relatively sufficient, some of the holders ship at low prices, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 76,046 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 2,597 tons, down 23 consecutive days; On December 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1377225 tons, an increase of 19,850 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 66853 lots, a daily increase of 1794 lots, short positions are 83026 lots, a daily increase of 4293 lots, net short positions are 16173 lots, a daily increase of 2499 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2101 opened high and went
high on December 17.
US lawmakers are close to reaching an agreement on an anti-epidemic relief package, the Federal Reserve maintains near-zero interest rates and the current size of bond purchases, and the easing policy environment and outlook weigh on the dollar index
.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, putting pressure on downstream demand prospects; And the lack of overseas demand and the expansion of import arbitrage will stimulate the inflow of overseas goods, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level and a small destocking state, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased significantly, paying attention to the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term high adjustment
.