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On Thursday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and fell, with the highest 52170 yuan / ton and the lowest 51640 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 51760 yuan / ton, down 0.
60% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6648 US dollars / ton, down 0.
59%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 428,000 in August, significantly lower than the market expectation of 950,000 and less than expected
for two consecutive months.
(2) U.
S.
factory orders in July were 6.
4% m/m, up from 6.
2% in the previous month and 6.
1%
expected.
(3) Chile's national copper production in July decreased by 4.
4% year-on-year and increased by 1%
month-on-month.
Spot analysis: On September 3, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52050-52230 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52140 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 215 yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 58,981 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 499 tons; On September 2, LME copper stocks were 84,975 tons, down 3,275 tons per day, down for 15 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2010 contracts were 82331 lots, minus 68 lots per day, short positions were 76555 lots, daily minus 314 lots, net long positions were 5776 lots, a daily increase of 246 lots, long and short were reduced, and net long increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2010 fell on September 3
.
The good US factory orders data for July, coupled with the bright US PMI data for August, boosted the US index to extend its rally, and the upcoming non-farm payrolls data if it also shows weakness with the ADP data will put the US index under pressure
again.
At the same time, the year-on-year decline in copper production in Chile and Peru in July continued to narrow, and copper export supply will gradually recover; In addition, downstream demand is still flat, so that copper prices lack upward momentum
.
However, the short-term recovery of copper ore is limited, the current copper ore processing fee TC remains low, and the support of raw material cost still exists; At the same time, London copper inventories fell to a new low in nearly 14 years, coupled with the arrival of the domestic peak season, demand is expected to pick up, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2010 contract daily KDJ indicator dead cross, focus on the 51000 position support, is expected to be weak short-term volatility
.
