Downstream demand is still expected to improve, limiting the space below copper prices

On Monday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fell, with the highest 67330 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 65660 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 65770 yuan / ton, down 0.
23% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 8889.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
97%
on the day.

Market focus: (1) The US Senate passed a $1.
9 trillion economic stimulus package with 50 votes in favor and 49 votes against to cope with the impact
of the new crown epidemic on the economy.
(2) The United States added 379,000 non-farm payrolls in February, far exceeding market estimates of 180,000 and January recording 49,000, the largest increase since October last year
.
(3) My nonferrous metal network data, on March 5, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 480,000 tons, down 64,000 tons weekly, down for six consecutive weeks, to the lowest level since October 2020; at the same time, China's copper processing fee TC was 33.
5 US dollars / dry ton, down 3.
2 US dollars / dry ton weekly, once again refreshing the new low
since 2011.
(4) In the first two months of 2021, China's copper ore imports were 3.
79 million tons, an increase of 0.
9% year-on-year; The import of unforged passes and its finished products was 884,010 tons, an increase of 4.
7%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On March 8, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 66200-66760 yuan / ton, the average price was 66480 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 1745 yuan / ton
.
Traders traded cautiously, bought downstream, and traded quietly
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 87,668 tons on Monday, an increase of 6,252 tons per day; On March 5, LME copper stocks stood at 79,025 tonnes, down 800 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of March 5, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 163025 tons, a weekly increase of 15,067 tons, an increase of five consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract are 70909 lots, minus 2911 lots, short positions are 70745 lots, daily minus 1823 lots, net long positions are 164 lots, daily minus 1088 lots, long and short are reduced, net long and long are reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 opened high and fell
on March 8.
The progress of the $1.
9 trillion stimulus package in the United States, coupled with the Federal Reserve's statement that it is still not enough to stimulate the Fed to raise interest rates, and rising expectations of economic growth and inflation, have strengthened US Treasury yields and the US dollar
.
The upstream domestic copper mine inventory has fallen sharply, and the processing fee TC has continued to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs, and it is expected that the impact of the Chilean port storm will begin to ease, but the epidemic situation in Peru has not improved, and the copper mine tension is difficult to change
.
The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but although domestic inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, they are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, downstream demand is still expected to improve, limiting the space
below copper prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract has reduced their positions significantly, focusing on the support of the 20-day moving average, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.