Downstream demand is difficult to say optimistic, limiting the kinetic energy above Shanghai aluminum

Market focus: (1) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Friday predicted that the U.
S.
economy will shrink by nearly 40% annually in the second quarter, and even next year, the average unemployment rate will be above
10%.
(2) Yunnan Province plans to carry out commercial storage and storage of key non-ferrous metal products such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and so on in the province, with a total storage volume of about 800,000 tons and a storage time of one year
.
(3) As of April 27, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 76,000 tons from Thursday to 1.
283 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On April 27, spot A00 aluminum reported 12490-12530 yuan / ton, the average price was 12510 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
per day.
In the morning, there are many middlemen receiving goods and inquirers, traders are active in trading, a large household is purchasing normally, with the rise of aluminum prices, the market transaction heat falls, although the later shipments of the holders have increased, but at this time the transaction is not as good as in the morning, the downstream intraday normal procurement, because the aluminum price rises and the premium is higher, the downstream receiving is not positive
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 251191 tons, a daily decrease of 8895 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days; On April 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1317925 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 80,723 lots, minus 2,161 per day, short positions were 95,254 lots, a daily increase of 262 lots, net short positions were 14,531 lots, a daily increase of 2,423 lots, more short positions, and net space increased
.

Domestic electrolytic aluminum plants reduced production due to losses in the early stage, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, Shanghai aluminum inventory continued to degrade and expanded; At present, due to the market's expectation that the country will lower the value-added tax rate in May, resulting in a decrease in shipment willingness, tight supply has boosted aluminum prices
.
However, the impact of the global epidemic, downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic, limiting the momentum above aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, there are many middlemen receiving goods and inquirers starting in the morning, and although the later shipments of the holders have increased, the transaction at this time is not as good as in the morning, and the downstream purchases are normal within the day
.
Technically, the 10-day moving average of the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum has obvious support, which is expected to break through the upper edge of the box type, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2006 contract can be long around 12400 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 12200 yuan / ton
.