Double-control policy adjustment, coal chemical industry is slow and happy, green and low-carbon burden is even heavier

At the end of 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified that the energy consumption of raw materials should not be included in the total energy consumption control
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Many people in the industry have made various interpretations of this, and they can be summed up in one sentence: This is a major benefit for China's coal chemical industry, with far-reaching influence
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However, the author believes that this regulation is only a rectification of the previous policy of excessive energy consumption dual control and excessive force, and does not exceed the current policy framework of the coal chemical industry
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On the contrary, the new idea of ​​dual control proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference, that is, the policy requirement of “creating conditions to realize the transition from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and to speed up the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon reduction”, The challenge to coal chemical industry is greater and the impact is more far-reaching
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For a long time, China has not carried out a policy definition on the type of coal used by coal chemical enterprises, nor has it limited the use of coal
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The emphasis on the concept of raw coal and fuel coal is that under the background of the dual control policy of energy consumption in the coal chemical industry, the coal used by some local enterprises is included in the total energy consumption for control regardless of indiscriminate, resulting in production due to insufficient coal indicators.
A kind of "self-help" from a predicament
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The reason for coal chemical industry is that raw coal does not participate in combustion and emissions during the entire production cycle, but is transformed into other chemical products through technological means, which is a change in material form
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It should be said that this "self-help" reason is scientifically based and justified, and the dual control policy is indeed ill-considered on this point
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Later, under the joint appeal of the industry, media, and enterprises, this reasonable requirement was adopted, and the policy adjustment of "the energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control" has been made
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However, this policy adjustment only relieves coal chemical enterprises from the dual control of energy consumption, but it is unshakable to complete the dual carbon goal
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Please note that the complete statement of the Central Economic Work Conference on "the energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control" is as follows: it is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon neutrality
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Based on the basic national conditions of coal as the mainstay, we must do a good job in the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy
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We must pay close attention to tackling key green and low-carbon technologies
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It is necessary to make scientific assessments, new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transition from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emission and intensity, and accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon reduction.
, to prevent simple layer-by-layer decomposition
.

It can be seen from this that it is obviously incomplete to interpret only the sentence "energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control", and it is easy to mislead enterprises
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You see, while the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "the energy use of raw materials should not be included in the total energy consumption control", the next step is to "create conditions to realize the transition from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emissions and intensity as soon as possible".

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For coal chemical companies, it seems to be loose, but in fact the task is more clear and more important
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Because the biggest weakness of coal chemical industry is precisely that the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions are too large
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For example, the carbon dioxide emission of coal-to-olefins is as high as 13 tons/ton of olefins, while the carbon dioxide emission of conventional naphtha cracking to olefins is 2.
6 tons/ton of olefins
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Another example is that the carbon emission per ton of coal-to-oil product is about 8.
5 tons, and the carbon dioxide emission benchmark of coal-to-gas per unit product is about 48 tons of carbon dioxide per thousand cubic meters, while the carbon emissions of petroleum refining, gasoline, diesel and natural gas are much lower than coal.
base route
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Therefore, in the dual control process of total carbon emissions and intensity, coal chemical companies will face greater challenges
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In other words, in the past dual-control policy environment, coal chemical companies were faced with the question of how long they could operate, but in the new dual-control policy environment, coal chemical companies are faced with the question of whether or not they can open their doors.
problem
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The so-called yield or let go means that with the further advancement of the new dual control policy, the state will introduce more stringent carbon emission restrictive policies and measures, and it is an inevitable trend for the "two high" projects to be completely eliminated in this historical process.

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At present, coal chemical projects of some routes have been included in the local "two highs" list.
Even if they are not listed now, it is difficult to predict whether they will be included in the future
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Therefore, if the coal chemical project is still carbon-intensive at present, it is difficult to guarantee that it will not receive a closing notice one day in the future
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The so-called whether it can be opened refers to the fact that the disposal of carbon dioxide in coal chemical projects of some routes has greatly increased the operating costs of the enterprise, and it is impossible to open it by itself
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It is estimated that with the current technical level, the carbon capture cost of the domestic coal chemical industry is US$25/ton
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This cost is unbearable for enterprises
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Therefore, the contradiction between reducing carbon emissions and huge costs will make coal chemical projects that lack economics even worse, and further lose their market competitiveness
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If technology research and development can't keep up, even if the government doesn't speak up, companies will not be able to open their own business
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To sum up, the coal chemical industry must fully and accurately understand the policy intention of the Central Economic Work Conference, especially the adjustment of the dual control policy, and focus on tackling key green and low-carbon technologies in the future
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In the absence of revolutionary breakthroughs in carbon dioxide emission and capture technology, it is still not appropriate to launch large-scale coal chemical projects
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