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Market situation: RU2001 increased positions and contracted, futures prices closed slightly lower, and Shanghai rubber followed the volatility intensified
.
The day closed at 11490, -0.
86% from the previous session; Volume 365526, position 287166, +21632, basis -1090, +35, Ru9-January spread -980, +90
.
NR2002 rushed back down, the futures price closed higher, closing at 9820 on the day, up 6.
05%, volume 87618, position 19456, basis -465.
News: 1.
China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber from January to July fell by 7.
1%
year-on-year.
2.
In June 2019, the output of Malaysian tianjiao decreased
year-on-month.
3.
Thailand pre-formulated rubber price guarantee plan
.
Market quotation: the quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market for 17 years is 10400 (-100) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 10850 (-100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 12800 (-100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10650 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan state-owned rubber processing plant remained stable at 9500 yuan / ton / ton
.
August 12 is Thailand's Mother's Day, and Hat Yai Raw Material Market is closed
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1315 (-25) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1330 (-10) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse price increase of 1325 (-20) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 416660 tons, +2670 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 top 20 long positions 61570, +2175; short positions 89577, +3906
.
Long and short increase at the same time, headroom increases
.
Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Although the inventory outside the bonded zone has continued to decline recently, under the condition that the customs supervision of mixed rubber has been relaxed, the inventory will still recover
as imported goods arrive in Hong Kong one after another.
On the demand side, domestic heavy-duty truck sales in July fell sharply again month-on-month, coupled with the current domestic tire consumption gradually entering the off-season, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, and the demand side was not optimistic
.
Overall, the global natural rubber market is still facing a fundamental pattern
of oversupply.
Since the main force of Shanghai rubber corresponds to the off-season of domestic supply, the current all-latex sticker mixed rubber will limit the downward space of the futures price; The main force of No.
20 rubber corresponds to the maximum supply period in Thailand, and it is expected that the price of Shanghai rubber in the future market is slightly stronger than the price of No.
20 rubber
.
From a unilateral point of view, the RU2001 contract price is under pressure near the 11550 line, focusing on the support around the previous low of 11200, and the short-term short idea operation; The NR2002 contract recommends selling short on the rally around 9900 and focusing on the 9500 line of support
below.
