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Overseas base metal prices rebounded after a tumultuous experience on Monday night to recover lost ground, as China's larger-than-expected interest rate cuts and increased new infrastructure policies overshadowed the tightening of overseas monetary policy and off-season supply and demand pressures
.
As of the close, London copper futures were reported at 9756.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
26%, domestic copper futures were mainly volatile at night, and the main contract of Shanghai copper futures was reported at 70080 yuan / ton, down 0.
21%.
On the macro front, money markets briefly bet on a 10bps tightening by the ECB as early as September, then repriced into a 10bps hike in October, before betting on a similar rate hike in February and March 2023
.
Expectations of the ECB's actions closely follow expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, with US federal funds rate futures showing that the market has fully priced in the Fed's expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2022; CME "Fed Watch" shows a 91.
6%
probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in March.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released a report that the strong rebound in economic growth in several major economies around the world is likely to fade
since the severe economic crisis caused by the global pandemic in 2020.
In its latest U.
S.
GDP forecast, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for U.
S.
GDP growth in 2022 to 3.
4%
from 3.
8% previously.
Weakening expectations of fiscal stimulus and the spread of the Omicron variant may be the two main reasons
why the agency lowered its forecast for US GDP growth.
From a fundamental point of view, although the supply of goods is limited, the overall activity of the market is limited, and Shanghai copper rises to the bottom line; After returning from the weekend, Guangdong electrolytic copper inventory increased significantly, and the increase in arrivals and the decrease in outbound shipments were the main reasons
.
As many processing enterprises have entered the holiday situation, the desire to replenish goods is very low, in addition, the monthly difference has expanded significantly, which is also the reason for the price reduction and shipment of goods by the holders.
In terms of inventories, the LME and SHFE accumulated significantly, rising by 06,600 tons and 07,200 tons
respectively.
On the whole, the emergence of accumulation has made the upward pressure on copper prices, but in the case of high inflation, copper prices have temporarily maintained a volatile pattern
.
