Domestic inventories remain low and destocked, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum has rebounded sharply

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin unexpectedly returned to the bailout table with a $916 billion proposal, which opens up a potential new path
to a deal by the end of the year, although Democrats disagree with parts of the proposal.

Spot analysis: On December 10, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16590-16630 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16610 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement demand is general, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 83,346 tons on Thursday, down 301 tons per day, down 18 consecutive days; On December 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1338575 tons, a daily decrease of 5,375 tons, a decline of 16 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 73145 lots, minus 305 lots per day, short positions are 92661 lots, daily minus 78 lots, net short positions are 19516 lots, daily increase of 227 lots, long and short are reduced, net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2101 rebounded
sharply on December 10.
The US dollar index continued to recover due to
uncertainty about the US stimulus package and the high risk of a no-deal Brexit.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, putting pressure on downstream demand prospects; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level and a small destocking state, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, paying attention to the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term width will be adjusted
.