Domestic copper consumption is in a good period copper or bottoming out

The latest release of China's GDP data is weak, with GDP growing 6.
5% year-on-year in the third quarter, the lowest quarterly value since the global financial crisis; In the first three quarters, the economy grew by 6.
7% year-on-year, also slightly lower than expected
.
In order to prevent the downside risks to the economy, China has implemented a number of active policies, and consumption, investment and exports are likely to
stabilize and recover.

From the perspective of consumption, in late September, the state issued a policy requiring relevant measures to expand the scale of consumption and stimulate the consumption level
of residents.
At the same time, the job market continues to improve, disposable income rises, and there is a foundation for
increasing consumption.
Data show that the surveyed unemployment rate of 31 large cities and towns in September was 4.
7%, down 0.
2 percentage points from the previous month and 0.
1 percentage points from the same period last year; the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the first three quarters increased by 7.
9% year-on-year, which was similar
to the growth rate in the first half of the year.

From the investment side, the inflection point of the recovery of infrastructure investment may appear
.
Under the guidance of the policy of "making up for shortcomings" in infrastructure, China Railway Corporation, Civil Aviation Administration, Energy Administration, National Development and Reform Commission, General Office of the State Council and other departments have accelerated the promotion of a number of infrastructure projects, and the amount of infrastructure investment and construction speed have continued to increase, and the inflection point of the growth rate of infrastructure investment may appear, which will drive the total investment in
fixed assets of the whole society.

From the export side, the export tax rebate policy hedges external pressure
.
The State Council's study decided to increase the current export rebate rate for some goods from November 1 this year, indicating that the state is taking active measures to reduce the cost of enterprises and alleviate the impact of unstable external environment on Chinese enterprises to prevent exports from declining
.

Copper is mainly used in power grid, real estate, automobile, home appliance and other industries
.
In September, the National Energy Administration issued a document requiring the acceleration of the construction of nine key power transmission and transformation projects this year and next, of which four UHV projects were approved in the fourth quarter of this year, higher than the market's general expectations
.
At the same time, we infer that the scale of distribution network investment may increase significantly to accelerate the construction and application
of a new generation of distribution automation systems.

In terms of real estate, the growth rate of short-term housing new starts and completions diverged, and the cumulative area of new housing starts from January to September increased by 16.
4% year-on-year, but the cumulative area of completed housing decreased by 11.
4%
year-on-year.
In the medium and long term, the start of new housing will eventually be transmitted to the completed and sales area, which in turn will increase the consumption of cables and related substation equipment, and increase the sales level
of home appliances such as air conditioners.

In terms of automobiles, according to market sources, in order to curb the continuous decline in automobile sales, the China Automobile Dealers Association has submitted documents to the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance of China proposing to halve the purchase tax for vehicles with a displacement of 2.
0L and below to stimulate the recovery of automobile sales
.
We judge that in the context of the country's expansion of domestic demand and consumption promotion, the policy of halving the purchase tax may be approved again, thereby curbing the decline in automobile sales
.

In summary, under the condition that China's economic growth momentum is still sufficient and the expectation of medium and long-term copper terminal consumption gradually becoming stronger is increasing, the probability of a significant increase in China's copper consumption is high, which is conducive to the bottom recovery of copper prices, and it is recommended that investors can buy
tentatively on the dip.