Domestic and foreign inventories continue to decline, and aluminum prices have received some support

In the external market, the Sino-US trade dispute is escalating, market panic is rising, and the price of London aluminum is under pressure and falling; Due to the fire, Rusal suspended the operation of the alumina plant to reduce the pressure of oversupply, and the price of Lun aluminum temporarily rebounded
.
The price trend of aluminum during the week maintained a trend
of first falling and then rising.
The market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.

In terms of the market, the spot aluminum price trend maintained a strong shock trend during the week, the data showed that the weekly average quotation of Changjiang spot AOO aluminum ingots was 13894 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan / ton on week, and the average price of spot aluminum per ton of Yangtze River in the previous week was 13876 yuan, up 18 yuan / ton, up 0.
13%
month-on-month.

Macro information: Domestically, the total value of imports and exports in the first seven months of this year was 17.
41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.
2%, continuing to show a steady development and stable trend
.
Internationally, the downward trend of international oil prices continues
, driven by increased risks to global trade and ongoing concerns about the growth of crude oil demand.

Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 139313 tons, down about 3% from last week, continuing the downward trend in mid-March, which is now basically close to the level of mid-February 2017, and the decline in inventory has slowed down since July, but the overall release of domestic refineries due to capital problems may be slightly slower than market expectations, and the destocking in August may still continue; The aluminum inventory in the previous period decreased by 12,193 tons from last week to 391467 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China was 1.
041 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, and the overall social inventory in the past four weeks was sorted out in a narrow range; the social inventory of aluminum rods was about 93,500 tons, an increase of about 11% over last week, and the price difference of aluminum bars and aluminum ingots was at a low level in the same period of 5 years, but it is expected to recover steadily in mid-to-late August
.
LME stocks were 998,250 tonnes, down about 3% from last week and at their lowest level
since 2008.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
Rusal is the world's largest aluminum company, with business in 19 countries on five continents, and has developed into a large-scale vertically integrated aluminum company, which has always played a pivotal role
in the integration process of Russia's aluminum industry.

February and July, the company's bauxite production was 443,000 wet tons, up 3.
7%
from the previous month.
Up to now, this year's bauxite production has reached 1.
323 million wet tons, and the average daily output can reach 14,290 wet tons
.

The strong performance of domestic data has boosted the market demand and the market has picked up risk aversion, and spot aluminum prices have risen
this week.
Macro uncertainty still weighs on the trend of metals, the news is bearish and the support is insufficient, and short-term spot aluminum prices are expected to remain range-bound
.