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On Friday, Shanghai aluminum still performed against declines, the main 1808 contract repeatedly tested the 14,000 mark support, and closed up 0.
39% to 14010 at the end of the day, up 55% from the previous trading day; Obviously, Shanghai aluminum 14,000 support is obvious, in addition, after the Sino-US tariffs landed, the United States did not take further action, the trade war has slowed down, so that aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but in the consumption off-season, the increase is expected to be limited, short-term Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate
around the range of 1.
38-14,400.
In terms of market, Shanghai transaction concentration is 13880~13910 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 30~20 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 13880~13910 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 13930~13940 yuan / ton
.
The spot discount is small, the inflow of warehouse receipts into the market has increased, the intermediary receiving force has been further weakened, the downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and the overall transaction has further declined
.
In terms of inventory, during the day, the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 739986 tons, down 5631 tons
from the previous trading day.
As of July 6, LME aluminium stocks fell by 625 tonnes to 1105975 tonnes
.
On the macro front, according to Bloomberg, the U.
S.
Trade Representative confirmed that tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods will begin at 00:01 EST on Friday
.
The formal imposition of tariffs means the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, which has a clear negative impact on nonferrous metals, and trade frictions between the world's largest economies will cause losses to the real economy of both sides, and the news is bearish
.
Industry information, Chinalco issued an announcement on the evening of July 5, saying: affected by the market environment and other factors, the cost of bauxite in Shanxi continues to rise, while the market price of alumina continues to decline, in view of the aforementioned reasons, in line with the principle of maximizing benefits, China Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
decided to implement flexible production of part of the alumina production line of Chalco Shanxi New Materials Co.
, Ltd.
from the date of the announcement, involving flexible production of alumina capacity of about 770,000 tons
.
A number of alumina plants in Shanxi stopped production and maintenance and elastic production, and alumina is expected to stop falling, and the news is good
.
On the whole, domestic and foreign inventories continue to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio is still low, which is good for the trend of aluminum prices
.
With the support of fundamentals, it is expected that aluminum prices will have little downside
.
Technically, the daily K-line is under pressure on the 10-day moving average, the MACD indicator green column is shortened, the KDJ indicator golden cross, it is expected that the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1808 oscillation operation, the operating range 13800-14300, for reference
only.
