Domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, and the rise in aluminum may continue

It is understood that affected by large-scale rain and snow, the transportation of aluminum ingots in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions has been hindered to a certain extent
.
On Thursday, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major domestic consumption places was 596,000 tons, down 19,000 tons from the previous month, and the arrival of goods in major consumption places such as Wuxi and Nanhai was small, and the overall outbound strength was maintained
.

Last week's aluminum inventory fell by 01,000 tons to 232,000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period did not change
much.
This week's spot A00 aluminum ingot liter discount has weakened, the current premium 90 yuan / ton ~ premium 130 yuan / ton, affected by the rise in aluminum prices, the decline in processing fees, the market trading atmosphere is general
.
In addition, the spread between Shanghai aluminum futures has also weakened
in the next month.

In terms of news, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3.
2 million tons, an increase of 9.
7% year-on-year and 1.
2%
month-on-month.
Stimulated by high smelting profits, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, but from the perspective of output changes, the release rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in August ~ October is relatively slow, lower than market expectations, so the increase in production has not put pressure
on aluminum prices.

According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs, China's scrap aluminum imports in October were 47,000 tons, down 21.
5%
year-on-year.
Since November, the import of scrap aluminum that meets the standards will no longer be restricted and can be freely imported as a resource, but because the current importer cannot fully determine the implementation standards of the policy, it is expected that the amount of scrap aluminum imports will not increase
much by the end of this year.

Low inventories are the main reason for the recent rise in aluminum prices and are also the key
to influencing future aluminum prices.
At present, electrolytic aluminum smelting is particularly profitable, and the output continues to increase, but the increase is limited, which is a small bearish, but under low inventory, this negative factor has not yet become a key factor
affecting aluminum prices.
It is expected that under low inventory, aluminum prices are prone to rise and fall
.
Future inventory changes will be the key to affecting the
trend of aluminum prices.