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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum daily market rebounded slightly, and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, mainly due to the linkage of coal, electricity and aluminum and the market sentiment is pessimistic
.
Although thermal coal continued to fall to the limit overnight, Shanghai aluminum began to stabilize overnight, running in the range of 23400-23500 yuan / ton in the morning session yesterday, and the spot trading volume in East China stabilized the discount of 130-150 yuan / ton, and the discount range was nearly 40 yuan / ton
narrower than yesterday.
However, during the same period, the market feedback Gongyi and Foshan discount range is still relatively concentrated, Gongyi area that month discount around 340 yuan / ton, Foshan to East China aluminum price price inverted, East China discount price difference of 80 yuan / ton, a new low
in the past 10 months.
The latest customs data shows that China's imports of unwrought aluminum alloy in September were 116,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.
7%, which shows that the recent domestic downstream demand is more general
.
Recently, Sichuan has cancelled preferential electricity prices
for the electrolytic aluminum industry.
Fundamentally, the supply side of the limited power impact is still showing a tightening trend, and the news of power restrictions and production restrictions in Guizhou is expected to affect the production capacity of about 190,000 tons, and Xinjiang and other regions may face a new round of production
cuts.
Consumers on the consumer side ship at a high price, receivers replenish goods at low prices, the overall transaction is acceptable, the operating rate of the consumer side is limited by electricity and high aluminum price factors, the power problem has not been significantly alleviated, the demand side recovery is poor, and the short-term need to be vigilant against the emergence
of negative feedback effects on demand.
The latest inventory data shows that the domestic aluminum ingot social library has accumulated, and it has been accumulated for six consecutive weeks, and aluminum prices have been under pressure
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks stood at 1,099,300 mt as of Oct.
21, down 0.
57 million mt
from the previous session.
As of October 18, the social stock of aluminum ingots rose by 41,000 tons from last week to 928,000 tons
.
In terms of price, the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, and the supply and demand of the aluminum market is weakening at this stage, but the power rationing has a long impact on the domestic supply side, and the consumer side is more elastic, so it is still recommended to go long on the dip, and it is also recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy
.
