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This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorated, financial market risk aversion was high, crude oil, gold, the US dollar once soared, copper prices under pressure slightly declined, as of Friday afternoon 3 pm Shanghai copper main 2204 contract was reported at 70690 points, a weekly decline of 1.
67% or 1200 yuan
.
From a fundamental point of view, the tight pattern of copper ore continues to improve, the domestic market enters seasonal accumulation, and the inventory in the previous period increases, but the global inventory is still at a low level; In the last period, copper stocks increased by 22,723 tons
this week.
In terms of the market, spot copper fell by 440 yuan this week, and good copper rose 70 yuan
on Friday.
Downstream work resumed one after another, the trading atmosphere warmed up, and on Tuesday, after the premium was lowered to the discount, the buying transaction increased in the market; The abundant supply of goods limits the space
for lifting.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar index rose sharply this week, the RMB volatility was not large, and the import loss narrowed to around 450 yuan per ton
.
In the macro aspect, disturbances are frequent, the Russian-Ukrainian war officially started, the global stock market has been impacted, involving supply-side interference, and surrounding metals have risen sharply, but copper prices have relatively limited volatility, mainly suppressed by risk aversion
.
At present, NATO does not have the tendency to join the war, mainly through finance, imports and other aspects of mutual sanctions, so the continued fermentation of bearishness needs to continue to wait and see
.
From the perspective of the long cycle, high inflation continues to provide support for medium-term copper prices, short-term market cautious wait-and-see, macro bearish disturbance, there is demand for a pullback, space is expected to be limited
.
On the whole, the Russian-Ukrainian war began, the global stock market was impacted, and the US dollar and crude oil once rose sharply; At the same time, the copper production involved in the two countries is limited, so the sharp rise in surrounding metals can not drive copper prices, and the overall performance of copper prices is weak
under the rise of risk aversion.
