Destocking pressure is high Rubber still has room to fall

Price difference structure: the price difference between full latex and RMB mixed rubber is about
300 yuan / ton.
The price difference between 1709 and 1705 is 430 yuan / ton
.

Inventory: As of May 2, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 13.
5% to 249,800 tons, a net increase of 29,700 tons from the previous period, and rubber stocks outside the zone also continued to increase
.
Overall, the rubber spot inventory in Qingdao is relatively abundant
.

Tianjiao production and import and export: China's natural rubber imports in the first quarter were 1.
325 million tons, down 3.
92% month-on-month and up 27.
69%
year-on-year.
From the monthly import data, the monthly import volume from January to March this year hit a new high
in nearly three years.
In particular, in March, imports of 532,800 tons hit a monthly import peak
in three years, excluding December.

To sum up: at present, foreign production areas have been cut one after another, the future supply side will continue to rise, Qingdao bonded zone inventory continues to rise, downstream demand is insufficient, spot inventory digestion is slow
.
This week, the all-steel tire operating rate of tire companies in Shandong was 55.
18%, down 11.
05 percentage points from the previous month and 16.
01 percentage points
from the same period last year.
This week, the operating rate of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies was 41.
25%, down 26.
9 percentage points from the previous month and 32.
28 percentage points
from the same period last year.
Rubber, tire destocking pressure is large, yesterday Shanghai rubber fell to the limit, in April 28 launched 15300-15600 short strategy has reached the target return of 8%, the medium line of Shanghai rubber still has room to fall, it is recommended that short orders can continue to hold
.