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With the Spring Festival approaching, tire companies cut production last week, tire starts fell significantly, and next week into the last week before the Spring Festival, tire factories will gradually enter the shutdown period
.
In the case of a phased slowdown in demand, it is difficult for the price of tianjiao to have upward momentum, but the pressure on the supply side is small, which supports tianjiao and continues the shock pattern
in the short term.
On the supply side, the domestic production area stopped cutting, and the purchase price of raw material glue in Thailand fell sharply but remained at a relatively high level
.
During the week, the weather in Thailand had a limited impact on rubber tapping operations, with the northern and northeastern tribal leaf production decreasing, and the southern part maintained high yields but limited
room for continued growth.
In December 2021, China's imports of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber) totaled 509,000 tons, down 6.
38% month-on-month and 13.
47%
year-on-year.
From January to December 2021, China imported a total of 5.
3742 million tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), a year-on-year decrease of 8.
94%.
On the demand side, the starting load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies last week was 55.
1%, down 4.
32 percentage points from last week and 11.
51 percentage points
from the same period last year.
Last week, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 51.
54%, down 7.
54 percentage points from last week and down 17.
38 percentage points
from the same period last year.
Last week, the inventory of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies was 44 days, flat
week-on-week.
The inventory of finished steel tires was 47 days, flat
week-on-week.
In December, tire exports continued to increase sharply year-on-year, of which all-steel tire exports were 334,700 tons, an increase of 15.
7 tons year-on-year, and semi-steel tire exports were 207,000 tons, an increase of 18.
1%
year-on-year.
In 2021, the cumulative export of all-steel tires will be 23.
776 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.
7%; semi-steel tires were 2.
307 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.
02%
In terms of inventory, as of January 17, the inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trading warehouses in Qingdao was 222,900 tons, an increase of 0.
07 million tons
over the previous period.
The inventory of 17 samples in the region was 77,300 tons, up 08,600 tons
from the previous period.
The total inventory was 300,200 tons, up 09,300 tons
week-on-week.
As of 01-21, the warehouse order of Tianjiao was 226,410 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons
week-on-week.
The total inventory of the exchange was 243,874 tons, an increase of 3,949 tons
week-on-week.
No.
20 rubber warehouse order 72,083 tons, an increase of 4,981 tons
week-on-week.
The total stock of the exchange was 85,992 tons, an increase of 8,472 tons
week-on-week.
It is expected that the short-term natural rubber will have a volatile market, there is a possibility of further downward adjustment before the holiday, in the medium and long term, as the main producing areas gradually enter a complete shutdown and with the recovery of demand after the holiday, a phased mismatch between supply and demand will form, and it is still bullish
after the holiday.
In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the arrival of goods is lower than expected or accelerated, and whether inventory will accumulate to judge how good
the demand after the holiday is.
