Demand resilience hedges supply increases PVC dilemma

The recent PVC market is dominated by range oscillatio.

In terms of environmental protection, some downstream enterprises in North China restricted production in August; in terms of inventory, the destocking of social inventories in East China and South China accelerated, but East China was still significantly higher than last ye.

There is still pressure on the supply side of the overhaul, restoration and superposition of new production

According to the forecast of Longzhong Information, the domestic PVC output from January to September 2019 was 125 million tons, an increase of about 120,000 tons compared with the same period last year, mainly reflected in the increase in output brought about by new production capaci.

PVC production situation inventory depletion speed is acceptable

Although the supply has increased, the market demand in East China and South China has gradually entered the peak season from the off-season, and the emerging demand such as PVC flooring has remained strong, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of PVC is not lar.

Real estate infrastructure demand remains resilient in the fourth quarter

The shutdown of northern real estate projects in winter will weaken the seasonal demand for P.

Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Outline for Building a Strong Transportation Country", which pointed out the direction of China's infrastructure development and indicated that China's infrastructure needs still have a lot of room for grow.

Conclusion: PVC may continue range oscillation

In summary, in the fourth quarter, PVC supply-side maintenance was reduced, and there was a certain pressure on new production capacity, but the strong resilience of demand-side real estate and infrastructure formed a certain hedge against supply pressu.

It should also be noted that September 28 is the expiration date of China's anti-dumping investigation on overseas P.