Demand performance is generally The downward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged

On the supply side, aluminum prices fluctuate frequently in the early stage, and imported aluminum flows into the Chinese market, which will also put pressure
on aluminum prices from the supply side.

In terms of demand, since the peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the start of downstream processing enterprises has been less than expected, except for a slight increase in some month-on-month, which is not as good as the same period of previous years
.

In terms of inventory, affected by the centralized stocking before the holiday, social inventory has been degraded
.
At present, the Shanghai aluminum plate is affected by factors such as supply-side disturbances and macro influences, and it is expected that the plate will continue to fluctuate
in a wide range in the medium and long term.

The impact of power cuts in Sichuan has basically subsided, but it may still take 1-2 months for production capacity to recover, and according to market research data, the progress may be slightly slower than previously expected
.
The affected production capacity in Yunnan may reach 1 million to 1.
5 million tons
.
Downstream demand is affected by macro factors and is still in a weak state, and demand performance is average
.
Inventories are still low in the short term, pay attention to the subsequent progress
of RUSAL.
At present, the growth rate of demand is likely to be weaker than the growth rate of production, and supply and demand may gradually turn to excess
.

On the whole, the weakening trend of aluminum demand driven by macro is difficult to change, and the downward trend of aluminum prices remains unchanged, but in the short term, supply-side and policy disturbance factors may increase price fluctuations
.